確定金融機(jī)構(gòu)的盈利能力
Determining The Profitability Of A Financial Institution
 

金融服務(wù)行業(yè)的快速變化對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的盈利能力至關(guān)重要。銀行在一國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)中扮演著重要的角色，這對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)銀行經(jīng)營(yíng)效率、影響銀行盈利能力的因素有重要意義。

一家銀行從其他的存款來(lái)源，其他的資金來(lái)源，以及在貸款活動(dòng)中的利息水平中產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn)。從歷史上看，貸款的盈利能力一直依賴于客戶的需求和優(yōu)勢(shì)。在現(xiàn)代，投資者要求更穩(wěn)定的收入來(lái)源，銀行因此更強(qiáng)調(diào)交易費(fèi)用，主要是貸款費(fèi)用，但也包括服務(wù)費(fèi)的數(shù)組存款活動(dòng)和其他服務(wù)（國(guó)際銀行，外匯，保險(xiǎn)，投資，電匯等）。貸款活動(dòng)為商業(yè)銀行提供了巨大的收入。在過(guò)去的10年里，銀行已經(jīng)采取了許多措施，以確保銀行在不斷變化的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下保持盈利。

巴基斯坦金融部門定期和不定期調(diào)整銀行結(jié)構(gòu)。計(jì)劃是由巴基斯坦國(guó)家銀行監(jiān)管法規(guī)，通過(guò)不同的翅膀，并受不同SBP的監(jiān)管要求，如資本和流動(dòng)性儲(chǔ)備的要求。

金融部門分析師預(yù)計(jì)“較高的盈利能力在2008年。這一預(yù)測(cè)的可能性是因?yàn)榘突固怪葶y行已經(jīng)提高了其貼現(xiàn)率，銀行可以通過(guò)投資來(lái)獲得良好的回報(bào)率。不斷上升的貸款利率大大提高了巴基斯坦州銀行確認(rèn)的盈利能力。

影響商業(yè)銀行盈利能力的因素既有內(nèi)生性，也有外生性。

內(nèi)生因素是控制管理，如管理質(zhì)量，其政策，管理的效率，產(chǎn)生收入和控制成本，銀行資本化和位置。
 

CHAPTER 1——第一部分

Rapid changes in financial service industries make it essential to determine the profitability of financial institution. Banks plays a key role in financial market of a country and for this it’s very important to evaluate that bank operate in efficient manner also what are the factors which affect the profitability of banks.

A bank generates profit from the differential between the level of interest it pays for deposits and other sources of funds, and the level of interest it charges in its lending activities. Historically, profitability from lending activities has been dependent on the needs and strengths of customers. In modern era, investors have demanded a more stable revenue stream and banks have therefore placed more emphasis on transaction fees, primarily loan fees but also included service charges on an array of deposit activities and other services (international banking, foreign exchange, insurance, investments, wire transfers, etc.). Lending activities provide the huge size of income to commercial banks. In the past 10 years banks have taken many measures to ensure that bank remain profitable while responding to increasingly changing market conditions.

Financial sector of Pakistan structured on Scheduled and Unscheduled Banks. Scheduled Banks are regulated by the State Bank of Pakistan’s Regulations, through different wings, and are subject to different SBP regulatory requirements such as capital and liquidity reserve requirements.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

The financial division analysts were projected “higher profitability??? in 2008. That projection made possible because State Bank of Pakistan has raised its discount rate in which the banks can invest to earn a good return. The rising lending rates contributed considerably to ensuring an increased profitability acknowledged by State bank of Pakistan.

Factors that affect the profitability of Commercial Banks are both Endogenous and Exogenous.

Endogenous factors are within the Control of Management such as quality of management and its policies, efficiency of management in generating revenues and controlling costs, bank capitalization and location.

Exogenous factors are outside management control, especially macro economic indices such as Interest rates, Exchange rates, Inflation, and other regulatory and market constraints.

The banking sector has been a source of stability for this country, because as you have seen in many countries, the banking sector has weakened and outright nationalization has taken place in some countries. However, the reforms that have taken place in Pakistan banking sector over the past 8 to 10 years have given stability and strength to this sector.

There are some ratios, by which can measure the strength of a banking sector, and the most important amongst those ratios is Capital Adequacy; our country’s average capital adequacy 8 percent some banks have less or some banks have more.

Macro stability taken some time to trickle down was not something that happens over a month or two, because macro stability causes improvement in the confidence and that improvement caused investment decisions to become positive.

As Pakistan banking sector presented stable condition. The country was not very export-dependent either, which is why the global decrease in trade has not had a big impact on Pakistan.

Pakistan has the potential to achieve self-sufficiency over a period of time and create a major surplus for agriculture. Banks in Pakistan over the last eight to ten years have been more selective in the client base, apart from the consumer side, because the consumer loans are only 14 percent of the total loans its much lower than other countries. Country had faced some problems in the consumer loans, especially those banks that had become too aggressive in this sector, but the rest whether it’s corporate or agriculture have remained stable.

Growth of Banking Sector:
Profitability of the banking sector has been breaking its own record year after year during this ongoing decade. The commercial banking sector in Pakistan regulated by the state bank of Pakistan. SBP introduced several structural changes. Beside higher standards of corporate governance at management and board level, the banks are adhering to SBP prudential regulations, consistent with BIS standards.

36 Commercial Banks (26 local banks and 10 foreign banks) of which 22 were listed on stock exchange.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Many merger/acquisition took place.

Asset of banking sector registered a increase to reach at Rs 3.7 trillion (2005) with annual growth rate of 15.2% that outpaced economic growth (2005-06)

85 % of banking sector are in private hands.
 

1.3 Earning And Profitability——收入和盈利能力

Strong earnings and profitability profile of banks reflects the ability to support present and future operations. More specifically, this determined the capacity to absorb losses, finance its expansion programs, pay dividend to its shareholders and build up adequate level of capital. There were many different indicators used to serve the purpose, the best and most widely used indicator return on assets (ROA).

Earning demanded most visible in case of foreign banks in 1998. The stress on earnings and profitability was expected although the steps taken by the SBP to improve liquidity. Not only liquid assets to total assets ratio turn down sharply, earning assets to total assets also dropped. T-Bill portfolio of banks declined considerably, as that were less compensated. Banks reduced return on deposits to sustain their spread. The financial institutes were not able to contain the decline in ROA due to declining stock and remuneration of their earning assets.

CHAPTER 2——第二部分

LITERATURE REVIEW——文獻(xiàn)綜述

Research on the determinants of bank profitability has focused on the returns of bank assets and equity, and net interest rate margins. It has traditionally explored the impact on bank performance of bank-specific factors, such as risk, market power, and regulatory costs.

Many researchers have focused on the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank performance and profitability.

According to Flennery (2000) tested the hypothesis that market rate fluctuations adversely affect commercial bank profits. The finding have responded of revenue and cost of fund to market rate changes then determine whether regulators should take pains to stabilize market conditions. Market rate levels emerge as a prominent influence on intermediary costs and revenues, but the effects of market rate changes effectively cancel one another for most large banks. The research found significant sensitivity to interest rate and it was unstable over the time.

By Brick (1994) estimated of market risk, interest rate risk, and foreign exchange risk continues to be unstable. The result of risk differed by bank type and period. As interest rate risk declines, foreign exchange increases; the result suggested that the market continues to reflect changes in the economic and regulatory situation of commercial banks in the pricing of bank stocks. The adverse impact of Interest Rate fluctuations on the profitability of Commercial Banks can be hedge with sound application of modern interest rate risk management theories and tools.

Used accounting decompositions, as well as panel regressions, Al-Haschimi (2007) studied the determinants of bank net interest rate margins in 10 Sub Saharan African countries. Author found that credit risk and operating inefficiencies explain most of the variation in net interest margins across the region. Macroeconomic risk has only limited effects on net interest margins in the study.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Demirgüç-Kunt and Huizinga (1999) used bank level data for 80 countries for the periods 1988–95; analyze how bank characteristics and the overall banking environment affect both interest rate margins and bank returns. In considering both measures, this study provides a decomposition of the income effects of a number of determinants that affect depositor and borrower behavior, as opposed to that of shareholders. Results suggested that macroeconomic and regulatory conditions have a pronounced impact on margins and profitability. Lower market concentration ratios lead to lower margins or profits, while the effect of foreign ownership varies between industrialized and developing countries. Foreign banks have higher margins and profits compared to domestic banks in developing countries, while the opposite holds in developed countries.

Hualan Cia and Weing (1992) studied on the effect of interest rate change on stock return and bank profitability, investigated the sensitivity of Canadian banks stock return and the profitability to change in interest rate. Used the data of Canadian banks on both the actual and unexpected change of different time series of interest rate indices, the short, intermediate and long term interest rate have significant negative correlation with bank stock return and profitability. The analysis showed through regression analysis by calculated the ratios of financial statements of banks. This measured the Canadian bank profitability against interest rate changes found that the net interest income and net income were not significantly related to change of interest rate.

Flannery (1981) the study examined the relation between the interest rate sensitivity of common stock returns and the maturity composition of the firm's nominal contracts. Used a sample of actively traded commercial banks and stock savings and loan associations, common stock returns are found to be correlated with interest rate changes. The co-movement of stock returns and interest rate changes positively related to the size of the maturity difference between the firm's nominal assets and liabilities.

Facts supported the hypothesis that the effect of nominal interest rate changes on common stock prices related to the maturity composition of a firm's net nominal asset holding. For commercial bank and S&L stocks, changes in interest rates were found to be significantly related to stock price movements. Also cross-sectional variation in the interest rate sensitivity measure was significantly related to the maturity mismatch of the bank assets and liabilities. Dependable with the nominal contracting hypothesis, the maturity composition of nominal contracts was found to be a significant factor affecting common stock returns.

Coyne (1973) Commercial Bank Profitability by Function, The study was concerned with the cost, price and profit by function. It estimated the profit for real estate, installment, commercial and agricultural loans, and investments for banks stratified by size of deposit and the method, that was used to make that determination; the degree to which the average price (interest rate) by function known to the bank and, expressed by a sample period, whether it was equal to or greater than the cost of funds by function; and the degree to which the bank was able to determine its profit by function. The results of the surveyed were representative of the aggregate commercial banking community, the study concluded by the cost of funds estimates to average balance sheet for the Representative Bank of America (RBA).Raw data were obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's functional cost analysis of forty-one banks. Surveyed to the chief executive officer of 510 commercial banks provides insight into the manner in which commercial banks utilize.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

The author designed to provide a method of cost and profit calculation to the numerous small and medium-sized banks who indicated in response to the author's survey that the author knew little or nothing about the costs by function. The results of the investigation in general and the profitability of RBA in particular representative of the entire banking community, this study was provide help to individual banks as well as policy-making levels of state and national government where questions concerning matters such as usury laws and price (interest rate) controls appear to be taking a disproportionately large amount of time and effort to resolve.

Goddard, Molyneux and Wilson (2004) determined the dynamic panel and cross-sectional regressions used to estimate growth and profit equations for a sample of commercial, savings, and co-operative banks from five major European Union countries during the mid-1990s. Methodologically unified the growth and profit strands in the previous empirical literature. Profit was an important prerequisite for future growth. High capital assets ratio tendency grow slowly in banking sector, and growth was connected to macroeconomic conditions. There were few systematic influences on bank growth. The resolution of profit appears higher for savings and co-operative banks than for commercial banks has attempted to unify the growth and profit strands in the literature by examining the performance of European banks during the 1990s. It reported univariate, bivariate, and multivariate versions of a two-equation model, which attempts to capture two-way causality between growth and profit while controlling for a range of other determinants of bank performance.

The growth regressions suggested as banks became larger in relative terms, their growth performance tended to improve further. This pattern was strongest for commercial banks.

Banks that sustained high capital-assets and liquidity ratios records low profitability. There was some evidence of a positive association between concentration and profitability, but little evidence of a link between bank-level x-inefficiency and profitability. While such patterns continue, concentration in European banking exhibited a natural tendency to increase. There was proof of positive perseverance of growth, although this tends to decline when additional control variables were included in the bivariate and multivariate growth models. The estimated coefficients on the covered profit term in the growth equations lend strong support to the notion that profit is an important sign to future growth. In the profit regressions, there was some variation in the estimated short-run between ownership types and countries. This reflected the fact that savings and co-operative banks are subject to various business and geographical restrictions that smother competition. The study favored the SCP hypothesis of a positive association between concentration and profitability, but little apparent relationship between bank level inefficiency and profitability.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

In Latin America, Gelos (2006) studied the determinants of bank interest margins using bank and country level data. Author found that spreads are large because of relatively high interest rates because of macroeconomic risk, including from inflation, less efficient banks, and higher reserve requirements.

In a study of United States banks for the period 1989–93, Angbazo (1997) found that net interest margins reflect primarily credit. In addition, there was evidence that net interest margins are positively related to core capital, non-interest bearing reserves, and management quality, but negatively related to liquidity risk.

Ho and Saunders (1981) applied the model of to analyze the determinants of interest margins in six countries of the European Union and the US during the period 1988–95. Authors found that macroeconomic volatility and regulations have a significant impact on bank interest rate margins. The results also suggested an important trade-off between ensuring bank solvency, defined by high capital to asset ratios, and lowering the cost of financial services to consumers, as measured by low interest rate margins.

Athanasoglou, Delis and Staikouras (2006) applied a dynamic panel data model to study the performance of Greek banks over the period 1985–2001, and find some profit persistence, a result that signal that the market structure not perfectly competitive. The results also showed that the profitability of Greek banks shaped by bank-specific factors and macroeconomic control variables, which were not under the direct control of bank management and industry formation, did not appear to significantly affect profitability.

Athanasoglou (2008) studied the profitability behavior of the south eastern European banking industry over the period 1998–2002. The empirical result suggested that the enhancement of bank profitability in those countries requires new standards in risk management and operating efficiency, which, according to the evidence presented in the paper, crucially affect profits. A key result that effect market concentration was positive, while the picture regarding macroeconomic variables was mixed.

A number of studies have emphasized the relation between macroeconomic variables and bank risk. Saunders and Allen (2004) surveyed on pro-cyclicality in operational, credit, and market risk exposures. Such cyclical effects mainly results from systematic risk originate from common macroeconomic influences or from interdependencies across firms as financial markets and institutions consolidate internationally. It ultimately exacerbates business cycle fluctuations due to adverse effects on bank lending capacity.

Using equity returns data over the period 1973–2003, Allen and Bali (2004) examined the disastrous risk of financial institutions. Results suggested evidence of pro-cyclicality in both tragic and operational risk measurements, implying that macroeconomic, systematic, and environmental factors play a considerable role in determining the risk and returns of financial institutions.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Pi and Timme (1993) investigated the relationship of concentration of decision management and control in one person on the cost efficiency level of the bank and return on assets. On the basis of the study found that the banks whose Chairman and CEO be same person had significantly less efficiency than those banks that possessed not similar governance structure and show that performance was affected by top management structure.

Isik and Hassan (2003) estimated cost, allocate, technical, pure technical and scale efficiency of Turkish banking industry from 1988 to 1996. This study considered capital, loan able funds as bank short-term loans, long-term loans, risk adjustment off balance sheet items and other earning assets as output of bank.

Thistle, McLeod and Conrad (1989) have found that (a) balance sheet composition depends on both the level and change in interest rates , (b) banks response to changes in interest rates in different, depending on whether rates are rising or falling.

Authors determined the relation between banks' portfolio of assets and liabilities and interest rate was stable. Several possible caused of instability. The econometric techniques employed allow for continuous change in the structure of the empirical model. The study found that the portfolio-interest rate relationship depends on the level of interest rates and exogenous assets, as well as their rate and direction of change

Samy Ben Naceur (2005) investigated the impact of banks' characteristics, financial structure and macroeconomic indicators on banks' net interest margins and profitability in the Tunisian banking industry for the 1980-2000 periods. The study found individual bank characteristics explained a substantial part of the within-country variation in bank interest margins and profitability. High interest margin and profitability tend to be associated with banks that hold a relatively high amount of capital, and with large overheads. The study found that the inflation had a positive force for net interest margin; while economic growth has no incidence. Another factor was financial structure and its impact on banks' interest margin and profitability; found that concentration be less beneficial to the Tunisian commercial banks than competition whereas for stock market development had a positive effect on bank profitability. This reflected the corresponding between bank and stock market growth. The study found that the disintermediation of the Tunisian financial system was favorable to the banking sector profitability.

Some authors examined on banking of south European region, the determinants of bank interest margins adopt two alternative modeling frameworks used dealership approach and a micro-model of the banking-firm approach, study found bank as a dynamic dealer, setting interest rates on loans and deposits to balance the asymmetric arrival of loan demands and deposit supplies by Staikouras. The bank interest margins were shown to be fees charged by banks for the provision of liquidity. The alternative approach was the micro-model of the banking firm, the study found the banking firm in a static way, setting where demands and supplies of deposits and loans simultaneously clear both markets.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Choi, Elyasiani and Kopecky (1992) estimated a multi-index model that considered market risk, interest sensitivity, and exchange rate risk of commercial bank stock returns. Dummy models were used to separate the period of pre- and post-October 1979 and to split the results attributable to money center banks from other banks. A significant exchange rate effect occurs for money center banks after October 1979, while interest sensitivity was stronger before October 1979. The exchange rate effect was attributing to raised hedge foreign loan exposure of money center banks.

The bank profitability typically measured by the return on assets (ROA) and/or the return on equity, usually expressed as a function of internal and external determinants. Internal determinant factors that were mainly influenced by a bank’s management decisions and policy objectives. Such profitability determinants are the level of liquidity, provisioning policy, capital adequacy, expenses management, and bank size. On the other hand, the external determinants, both industry and macroeconomic related, also known variables that reflect the economic and legal environments where the financial institution operates.

By Bourke (1989) determined; Liquidity risk, arising from the possible inability of a bank to accommodate. Decreased in liabilities or to fund increases on the assets’ side of the balance sheet, considered an important determinant of bank profitability. The loans market, especially credit to households and firms, risky and has a greater expected return than other bank assets, such as government securities. That expected a positive relationship between liquidity and profitability.

Duca and McLaughlin (1990) studied that variations in bank profitability were largely attributable to variations in credit risk, since increased exposure to credit risk normally associated with decreased firm profitability.

Miller and Noulas (1997) suggested that the more financial institutions are exposed to high risk loans, the higher the accumulation of unpaid loans and the lower the profitability. Even though leverage (capitalization) has been demonstrated to be important in explaining the performance of financial institutions, its impact on bank profitability was ambiguous. As lower capital ratios suggest a relatively risky position, one might expect a negative coefficient on this variable.

Molyneux and Thornton (1992) observed a positive relationship, suggesting that high profits earned by firms be appropriated in the form of higher payroll expenditures paid to more productive human capital. It should be appealing to identify the dominant effect, in a developing banking environment like Malaysia.

Authors used Bank size to capture potential economies or diseconomies of scale in the banking sector. The variable controls for cost differences and product and risk diversification according to the size of the financial institution. The first factor could lead to a positive relationship between size and bank profitability were significant economies of scale, while the second factor negative one was increased diversification leads to lower credit risk and lower returns.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Berger, Hanweck, Humphery (1987) discussed that marginal cost savings can be achieved by increasing the size of the banking firm, especially as markets develop.

Eichengreen and Gibson (2001) suggested that the effect of a growing bank’s size on profitability may be positive up to a certain limit. Beyond the point, the effect of size was negative due to bureaucratic and other reasons.

Bank profitability be sensitive to macroeconomic conditions despite the trend in the industry towards greater geographic diversification and larger use of financial engineering techniques to manage risk associated with business cycle forecasting. Generally, higher economic growth encourages bank to lend more and permits them to charge higher margins, as well as improving the quality of their assets.

2.1 The Determinants of Bank Performance:——銀行業(yè)績(jī)的決定因素

Studies on the determinants of bank’s interest margin and profitability have focused on single country sides and a panel of countries.

2.1a Single country studies——單一國(guó)家的研究

As most of the studies on bank performance are conducted in the US and emerging markets.

Neeley and Wheelock (1997) explored the profitability of a sample of insured commercial banks in the US for the 1980-1995 periods. Authors found that bank performance positively related to the annual percentage changes in the state’s per capita income.

The main Studies on the determinants of bank’s performance in emerging countries were carried out in Colombia Barajas et al. (1999) document significant effects of financial liberalization on bank’s interest margins for the Colombian case. Although the overall spread has not declined after financial reform, the relevance of the different factors behind the bank spreads were affected by such measures. Another change linked with the liberalization process was the increase of the coefficient of loan quality after the liberalization.

Afanasieff, Lhacer and Nakane (2002) make used of panel data techniques to uncover the main determinants of the bank interest spreads in Brazil.

Ben Naceur and Goaied (2001) investigated the determinants of the Tunisian bank’s performances during the period 1980-1995. The research indicated that the best performing banks were those who had struggled to improve labor and capital productivity, maintained a high level of deposit accounts relative to their assets and had been able to reinforce their equity.

Guru, Staunton and Balashanmugam (2002) attempted to identify the determinants of successful deposit banks in order to provide practical guide for improved profitability performance of these institutions. The study was based on a sample of 17 Malaysian commercial banks over the 1986-1995.

The profitability determinants were divided in two main categories, internal determinants (liquidity, capital adequacy and expenses management) and the external determinants (ownership, firm size and external economic conditions). The finding of that study revealed that efficient expenses management was one of the most significant in explaining high bank profitability. Among the macro indicators, high interest ratio was associated with low bank profitability and inflation was found to have a positive effect on bank performance.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

2.1b Panel country studies——研究小組的國(guó)家

The panel country studies were focused on European companies and developed and developing countries.

Molyneux and Thornton (1992) were the first to explore thoroughly the determinants of bank profitability on a set of countries. Authors used sample of 18 European countries during the 1986-1989. The finding represented a significant positive association between the return on equity and the level of interest rates in each country, bank concentration, and government ownership.

Abreu and Mendes (2002) investigated the determinants of bank’s interest margins and profitability for some European countries in the last decade. The authors reported that well capitalized banks face lower expected bankruptcy costs and advantages translate into better profitability. Although with a negative sign in all regressions, the unemployment rate was relevant in explaining bank profitability.

Bashir (2000) examined the determinants of Islamic bank’s performance across eight Middle Eastern countries for 1993-1998. A number of internal and external factors were used to predict profitability and efficiencies. Controlling for macroeconomic environment, financial market situation and taxation, the results showed that higher leverage and large loans to asset ratios, lead to higher profitability. The author reported in his study that foreign-owned banks are more profitable that the domestic. The result also found the evidence that taxation impacts negatively bank profitability. Final result of study was that macroeconomic setting and stock market development have a positive impact on profitability.

Demerguç-Kunt and Huizingha (1999) examined the determinants of bank interest margins and profitability using a bank level data for 80 countries in the 1988- 1995 period. The set of variables included several factors accounting for bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, taxation, regulations, financial structure, and legal indicators.

The study reported that a larger ratio of bank assets to GDP and a lower market concentration ratio lead to lower margins and profits. Foreign banks have higher margins and profits than domestic banks on developing countries, while the opposite prevail in developed countries.

Demerguç-Kunt and Huizingha (2001) presented evidence on the impact of financial development and structure on bank profitability using bank level data for a large number of developed and developing countries over the 1990-1997 period. The study found that financial development has a very important impact on bank performance. It reported that higher bank development was related to lower bank performance. Stock market development on the other hand, leads to increased profits and margins for banks especially at lower levels of financial development, indicating complementarities between bank and stock market.

CHAPTER 3——第三部分#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND HYPOTHESIS——理論框架和假設(shè)

The interest rate assummed to be one of the most important factors that affect commercial banks profitability.

The issue which deals in the study was the affect of market interest rate fluactuation has adversly related to commercial bank profitability.

This thesis study bring opportunity to established a relationship between fluctuations in interest rates and the performance of commercial banks in Pakistan during the period of 2004- 2008.

The main purpose of this study was to determine the implication of fluctuations in market interest rates on the profitability of commercial banks in Pakistan. This study provide

–Major causes of interest rate fluctuations

–The extent to which commercial banks are set to manage interest rate related risks.

Major causes of Interest Rate Fluctuation were unstable government Policies, Unstable Economic Environment, unavailability of long-term funds, Inflation. The factors that affect the commercial bank profitability were significant mismatch in the maturity profiles of Assets and Liabilities, Frequent Interest Rate Fluctuations, under capitalization of banks, Poor Collateral of credits.

Pakistan’s financial sector included nationalized, foreign, and private banks; and Non-banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs) which include Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), Investment Banks, leasing companies, modarabas, and housing finance companies.

Scheduled Banks know as also commercial bank regulated by the State Bank of Pakistan regulated through different wings, and subject to different SBP regulatory requirements such as capital and liquidity reserve requirements.

Factors that affect the profitability of Commercial Banks are both Endogenous and Exogenous.

Endogenous factors are within the Control of Management such as quality of management and its policies, efficiency of management in generating revenues and controlling costs, bank capitalization and location.

Exogenous factors are outside management control, especially macro economic indices such as Interest rates, Exchange rates, Inflation, and other regulatory and market constraints. Interest rate comes under this category.

3.1 Discount rate:——折現(xiàn)率

The discount rate is an interest rate a central bank of country charges depository institutes that borrow reserves from it. The rate of interest set by the State bank of Pakistan that member banks are charged when commercial bank borrow money through the SBP interest on an annual basis deducted in advance on a loan.

3.2 Bank Profitability:——銀行的盈利能力

A bank generates a profit from the differential between the level of interest it pays for deposits and some different source of funds, and the scale of interest accuse in its lending activities. Strong earnings and profitability profile of banks reflects the ability to support present and future operations, that determines the capacity to absorb losses, finance its expansion program, pay dividend to its shareholders and build up adequate level of capital. Although different indicators are used to serve the purpose, the best and most widely used indicator are return on assets (ROA), Net Income, and Net interest income.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

CHAPTER 4——第四部分

RESEARCH METHOD——研究方法

The method used in the study was regression analysis through “Curve linear regression??? apply for determined discount rate fluctuation has adversely impact on bank profitability. This section provides information about sources of data, sample size, and discussion of variables.

4.1 Data Collection——數(shù)據(jù)收集

This study used data analysis from secondary source. The data of financial statements are taken from annual reports of commercial banks for 5 years 2004-2008.

4.2 Data Sample——數(shù)據(jù)樣本

The total sample of commercial bank in Pakistan is 27 listed in Karachi stock exchange out of which the sample size of research was 12 Commercial Banks in Pakistan.

The market discount rate is independent variable and net income, net interest income and return on assets are dependent variables which collected from annual reports during the sample period.

4.3 Regression Analysis and Curve Linear Regression——回歸分析和線性回歸曲線

Change in Net income

ΔNIt = α + β ΔIt

Here, ΔNIt is the change of net income for a bank, computed by (Nit-Nit-1)/Nit-1 (It) is discount rate. It indicate how capable the management of banks has been converting the bank’s asset into net earnings.

Return on Assets

ROA = Net Income /Total assets

This ratio indicate efficient management at using its assets to generate earnings.

Change in Net interest income

ΔNII = α + β ΔIt

Here, ΔNIIt is the change of net income for a bank, computed by (Niit-Niit-1)/Niit-1 (It) is discount rate.

The net interest margin measures how large spread between interest revenue and interest cost it can achieve by controlling the bank’s earning asset.

4.4 Variables:—— 變量 

4.3a Dependent Variable:——因變量

Return On Asset:

It’s an indicator of profitability measurement of a bank or company. ROA provide the idea to how efficient management is at using its assets to generate earnings. It Calculate by dividing a company's annual earnings by its total assets. ROA explain what earnings were generated from invested capital (assets).

The ROA figure provided an idea how effectively the company can converted the money into investment. The higher the ROA number, the better, because the bank is earning more money on less investment.

Net Income:

Net income represents the amount of money remaining after all costs, depreciation, interest, taxes, and other expenses have been deducted from a company's total sales. Net income also known as net profit, or net earnings. It’s one of the most closely followed numbers a company can produce, and it plays a part in many other financial measures. Net income is not only a measure of company earned cash during a given period. It’s also important to know that changes in accounting methods can influence net income figures, and in many cases these changes may have little to do with a company's actual operations.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

Changes in net income were used for much analysis. In general, when a bank or company's net income is negative or is fairly low, this could suggest a myriad of problems, ranging from inadequacies in customer or expense management to unfavorable accounting methods. Some institutes strive to minimize taxes and will therefore intentionally attempt to minimize their reported net income.

Net interest Income:

Net interest income is a financial measure for banks, calculated by the amount of money the bank receives from interest on assets (commercial loans, personal mortgages, etc) minus the amount of money the bank pays out for interest on liabilities (personal bank accounts, etc). The variable usually calculated for banks, this figure can also be calculated for other corporations, simply by subtracting the amount of interest paid on liabilities from the amount of interest earned from assets.

4.3b Independent Variable——自變量

Interest rate

In the study the discount rate was used as an interest rate which a central bank of country charges to depository institutes that borrow reserves from it. State Bank of Pakistan offered the discount rate to the commercial banks.

CHAPTER 5——第五部分

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS——數(shù)據(jù)分析和結(jié)果

The study included three indicators to measures of performance; return of assets (ROA), change in net income (NI), and change in net interest income (NII). ROA have been used to measured performance studies. ROA measures the profit earned per dollar of assets and reflect how well bank management use the bank’s real investments resources to generate profits while NI is focused on the profit earned on activities.

Table 1

Variable Summary

Dependent Variable

Independent Variable

ROA

NI

NII

IR

Number of Positive values

53

35

53

60

Number of Zeros

1

1

1

0

Number of Negative values

6

24

6

0

Number of (user missing)

0

0

0

0

Missing values (system missing)

0

0

0

0

The Curve linear regression procedure produces curve regression statistics and related plots for 11 different curve estimation regression models.

Here variables appear to be related linearly, used a simple linear regression model. When variables were not linearly related, apply transforming data. When a transformation does not work, need a more complicated model. There be many models in the Curve Estimation procedure: linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power, compound, S-curve, logistic, growth, and exponential.

The Curve Estimation routine in SPSS is a curve-fitting program to compare linear, logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, power, compound, S-curve, logistic, growth, and exponential models based on their relative goodness of fit for models where a dependent variable predicted by a single independent variable.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

This study has identified the profitability indicators that explain the variation in interest rate to evaluate the impact of interest rate on commercial bank profitability. This investigation has used the regression analysis through curve estimation. The model has been used in this study were Linear and Logarithmic regression to know the significance level of dependent variables in relation with independent variable.

Linear model Y = b0 + (b1 * x) where b0 is the constant, b1 the regression coefficient for x, the independent variable. It required multivariate normality. The dependent variable related to the independent variable in a linear method. Here the interest rate was adversely related to three dependent variables.

Logarithmic model Y = b0 + (b1 * ln(x)) where ln() is the natural log function. In the b0 is constant, b1 the regression coefficient for x, the independent variable. Through the log function the model tested the relation of interest rate and three dependent variables.

5.1 ANOVA——方差分析

Table 2

Sum of mean Square

df

Mean Square

F

Sig

Linear

ROA

.001

1

.001

.325

.571

NI

7.762

1

7.762

.273

.603

NII

.506

1

.506

3.063

.085

Logarithmic

ROA

.000

1

.000

.205

.653

NI

3.104

1

3.104

.109

.742

NII

.666

1

.666

4.101

.047

In this table there are results of two equations Linear and Logarithmic in ANOVA analysis. The table contains two sets of equations, which represents the mean, frequency, and significance level of the variables.

This table represented that Sig. (p value) = 0.047 As p < 0.05 the predictors are significantly better than would be expected by chance. The regression line predicted by the independent variables explains a significant amount of the variance in the dependent variable. It would normally be reported in a similar trend to other ANOVAs:

F (ROA, NI, NII) .325, .273, 3.063 were > 0.05

F (ROA, NI, NII) .205, .109, 4.101 were > 0.05

This shows that ROA, NI and NII are having insignificant result. The result proved that interest rate and Commercial bank profitability has adversely related to each other.

ANOVA, Analysis of variance, a method of testing the null hypothesis that several group means are equal in the population, by comparing the sample variance estimated from the group means to that estimated within the groups.

Table showed Sum of squares mean by the degrees of freedom it gives the Mean Square and F provided the significance value. It can see that the Regression explains significantly variance.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

It was based on the comparison of two estimate variances one representing the variance within groups, often referred to as error variance; and the other representing variance due to differences in-group means. If the two variances do not differ significantly, one can believe that all the group means come from the same sampling distribution of means and there was no reason to claim that the group means differ. However, the group means differ more than can be accounted for due to random error, there is reason to believe that were drawn from different sampling distributions of means.

The larger F ratio, the greater is the difference between groups as compared to within group differences. An F- ratio equal to or less than one indicates that there is no significant difference between groups and the hypothesis is correct. The hypothesis was correct there was no significant level among independent variable with dependent variables.

ANOVA procedure can be used correctly if the following condition:

The dependent variables should be interval or ratio data type. The data used f ratios which interpreted the bank profitability.

The population normally distributed and the variance is equal.

5.2: Coefficient——協(xié)同因素

Table 3

Unstandardize Coefficients

Standardize

coefficients

t

Sig

B

Std Error

Beta

Linear

ROA

.010

.018

.075

.570

.571

NI

1.050

2.007

.068

.523

.603

NII

-.268

.153

-.224

-1.750

.085

Logarithmic

ROA

.003

.007

.059

.452

.653

NI

.240

.728

.043

.330

.742

NII

-.111

.055

-.257

-2.025

.047

The next part of the output, the Coefficients table, showed variables were individually significant predictors of dependent variable. Regression Coefficient measured how independent variable predicts the dependent variables. Here the interest rate predicts the ROA, NI, and NII.

The table showed unstandardized Coefficient that provides the independent variables the regression equation. The Standardized Beta Coefficient column showed the contribution that an individual variable makes to the model. Here p > 0.05 show significance of variable in the facts represent that dependent variables ROA, Net income and Net interest income had no significance level related to independent variable.

Numerical value of the parameter estimated directly associated with an independent variable. The regression coefficient represents the amount of change in the dependent variable for a change in independent variable. In this study interest rate (discount rate) is independent variable and ROA, NI, NII are dependent variable.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

In regression coefficients are partial coefficient because each variable takes into account this represents the relationship of interest rate with ROA, Net Income and Net Interest Income. The facts represented that there was negative association between them.

The coefficient is not limited in range, as it based on the degree of association and the scale unit of the independent variable.

In linear regression, the size of the coefficient for each independent variable gives the size of the effect that variable is having on dependent variable, and the sign on the coefficient (positive or negative) gives the direction of the effect.

In regression with a single independent variable, the coefficient tell how much the dependent variable is expected to increase (if the coefficient is positive) or decrease (if the coefficient is negative) when that independent variable increases by one.

The result examined that as the interest rate raised it caused to decrease the level of return through the ratios.

CHAPTER 6——第六部分

CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION——結(jié)論與討論

The study determined that hypothesis was accepted interest rate fluctuation has adversely related with commercial bank profitability. The hypothesis tested by regression analysis of curve estimation through three dependent variables these are ROA, NI, NII and one Independent variable interest rate.

The data used for analysis were from secondary source. Data taken from annual reports for the period 2004-2008 of commercial banks in Pakistan.

As a result of the approved progress toward the relationship of interest rate and commercial bank profitability showed the association between them. The study examined that there was negative association between the interest rate and commercial bank profitability, as the causes of increasing interest rate was inflation. The study developed a framework for investigating through key ratios which showed the profitability of financial institutes that leads to more significant approach. Result proved the hypothesis.

CHAPTER 7——第七部分

IMPLICATION——含義

The analysis of the bank profitability against interest rate changes is important for investors, to measure Commercial bank profitability against interest rate risk. This study found the sensitivity of Commercial bank profitability to changes of interest rate. This investigation helped to increase the commitment of managers of commercial banks to hold sound interest rate management policies and minimize their exposure to interest rate risks.

This study encouraged the policy makers and bank regulators to implement fiscal and monetary policy regime that will ensure interest rate stability.