在幾個月之間前歐盟領導人相信在經歷了暴風雨之后最終是可以看到晴朗的天空。歐洲央行行長德拉吉承諾無論如何都要支持歐洲貨幣，大陸人們重拾了對于歐元的信心。歐元的增長比率似乎又恢復了，盡管增長的速度比較緩慢。外圍動亂的國家也在恢復，這些得益于一系列比較艱難的措施，比如像縮減財政赤字以及提高競爭力等。失業率特別是一些年輕人的失業率一直很高，但是至少多數國家的失業率在下降，債息也變得比以前少了，做為金融市場也停止了對于歐元崩潰的斷言。

這個是錯覺。最近這幾周國家的歐元又開始進水了。他們集體的GDP指數在第二階段停滯：意大利開始陷入完全的經濟衰退期，法國GDP也表現平平，甚至強大的德國也沒有想到會出現大面積的減產。

JUST a few months ago the euro zone’s leaders believed that, having weathered the storm, they were set fair at last. Buoyed by the promise of Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, to do “whatever it takes” to support the currency, confidence had seeped back into the continent. Growth seemed to be returning, albeit at a slow pace. Troubled peripheral countries were recovering, after bail-outs and painful measures to cut budget deficits and improve competitiveness. Unemployment, especially among the young, was still desperately high, but at least in most countries it was falling. And bond spreads had narrowed sharply, as financial markets stopped betting that the euro would fall apart.

It was an illusion. In recent weeks the countries of the euro zone have begun to take in water once again. Their collective GDP stagnated in the second quarter: Italy fell back into outright recession, French GDP was flat and even mighty Germany saw an unexpectedly large fall in output (see article). The third quarter looks pretty unhealthy, partly because the euro zone will suffer an extra drag from Western sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen perilously low, to around 0.4%, far below the near-2% target of the European Central Bank, raising fears that the zone as a whole could fall prey to entrenched deflation. German bond yields are hovering below 1%, another harbinger of falling prices. The euro zone stands (or wobbles) in stark contrast with America and Britain, whose economies are enjoying sustained growth.

What started more than four years ago as a banking and sovereign-debt crisis has decayed into a growth crisis that is now enveloping the three biggest economies. Germany is teetering on the edge of recession. France is mired in stagnation. Italy’s GDP is barely above its level when the single currency came in 15 years ago. Since these three countries account for two-thirds of euro-zone GDP, growth in places like Spain and the Netherlands cannot make up for their torpor.

The underlying causes of Europe’s new ills are three very familiar and interrelated problems. First, there is a shortage of political leaders with the courage and conviction to push through structural reforms to improve competitiveness and, eventually, reignite growth: the big countries have wasted the two years bought by Mr Draghi’s “whatever it takes” commitment. Second, public opinion is not convinced of the urgent need for deep and radical changes. And third, despite Mr Draghi’s efforts, the monetary and fiscal framework is too tight, throttling growth—which makes structural reforms harder.

Different manifestations of these problems can be seen across the euro zone. But the country that most dramatically epitomises all three is France. This week its embattled Socialist president, François Hollande, was forced to reshuffle his government to eject Arnaud Montebourg who, despite being economy minister, was his own side’s most persistent critic from the left (see article). Mr Hollande, who came to office in 2012 promising a painless future, is hardly a Thatcherite reformer. But since he appointed Manuel Valls as prime minister in March, he has at least embraced the principle of public-spending cuts, lower taxes and structural reforms.

In theory a new and more cohesive reforming government could make progress, but public opinion is not remotely prepared for that. Mr Hollande is not just deeply unpopular; unlike Italy’s Matteo Renzi, who has bravely made the case for (as yet undelivered) tough reforms, the French president has failed to convince voters that painful change, including a reduction in the size of the state, is inevitable. Instead, Mr Montebourg and his chums offer the beguiling notion that, if only the euro zone scraps its rules and allows bigger budget deficits and generous enough public spending, no more painful reforms will be needed, because the economy will miraculously lift itself out of danger by its own bootstraps.

Mr Montebourg’s argument is all the more seductive because he is right about Europe’s third problem: excessive austerity, largely forced on the continent by Germany. Mr Draghi has just implicitly conceded that fiscal and monetary policy in the euro zone is too tight at the annual economics jamboree in Jackson Hole. He hinted that he was in favour of quantitative easing, which both America and Britain have used, and he called for fiscal policy to do more to encourage growth—a message plainly aimed at Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel. She is the leader who insists most firmly on sticking to the euro zone’s rules on fiscal discipline, just as it is the German Bundesbank that is most strongly against quantitative easing.

Despite the gloom, there should be scope here for a bargain. If Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi can show they are sincere about structural reforms, Mrs Merkel should be willing to tolerate an easier fiscal stance (including higher public investment in Germany) and a looser monetary policy. Close your eyes, and you can imagine the three leaders working with the European Commission to complete the single market and pushing through a trade deal with the United States. Sadly, in the real world, Mrs Merkel has little reason to trust either France or Italy: whenever external pressure on them has eased, they have promptly backtracked on promises of reform. And she has just installed Jean-Claude Juncker, the do-nothing candidate, as president of the European Commission.

So it will be hard. But without a new push from the continent’s leaders, growth will not revive and deflation could take hold. Japan suffered a decade of lost growth in the 1990s, and is still struggling. But, unlike Japan, Europe is not a single cohesive country. If the currency union brings nothing but stagnation, joblessness and deflation, then some people will eventually vote to leave the euro. Thanks to Mr Draghi’s promise to put a floor under government debt, the market risk that financial pressures could trigger a break-up has receded. But the political risk that one or more countries decide to storm out of the single currency is rising all the time. The euro crisis has not gone away; it is just waiting over the horizon.

In recent years, along with our country economy of booming development, scientific research in colleges and universities cooperation with government, enterprises are increasingly interlinked, are taking more and more scientific research project of scientific research funds has been substantial growth, recently, the research quantity has become an important condition to measure the strength of a university.However, how to strengthen the scientific research management is a challenging issue facing the many colleges and universities, scientific research funds management effectiveness difference exists generally, from the government to the colleges and universities, are actively exploring reasonable management system, make scientific research funds to reasonable use and stimulate the enthusiasm of researchers and create more social value.

The teaching and scientific research fund money from different sources of finance, when use, be included in the cost of the respective by the regulation, but in practice, it is often hard to strict cost accounting accurate between the two.University researchers are mostly ShuangJianTiao in teaching and scientific research, closely related to scientific research and teaching work, used for the experimental teaching materials are often used in scientific research project of experiments, for example, teaching with fixed assets used in the research of royalty, engaged in scientific research using utilities such as spending is not included in the cost of scientific research, but all in the operational expenses allocated under the education;Researchers extracted proportion of super allowances, remuneration;When 'expenses, listed in the invoice detail project does not accord with the actual spending;On labor costs, fiction, or under the guise of arbitrage of student assistants subsidies, make project cost accounting is difficult to implement the principle of seeking truth from facts.Cost of college scientific research project is only partially compensated from the research, research costs serious squeezed occupy, divert the school education funds.

Is common in the college scientific research management supervision mechanism is not sound, the research of the special audit work become a mere formality, spending is not reasonable, even illegal reconciliation.Some scientific research personnel, in order to avoid pay the management fee, will strive for to the outside of the transverse scientific research funds of the affiliated unit, from school of capital regulation;Some in order to set out the cash, with a large number of do not tally with the actual paper to submit an expense account, such as entertainment, transportation, etc.;Many project concluding don't checkout, in quite a long time after the completion of the project project director also continue to use the scientific research project of surplus funds charge fees, neglect the management of credit funds.
So the widespread problem of poor effectiveness of university scientific research management, exploring the way of scientific research funds management and method has become improve the level of scientific research, the key to ensure the quality of scientific research achievements.Only strengthen scientific research funds management, reasonable distribution of use, give full play to the efficiency of existing research.

The budget management of scientific research in colleges and universities, should by the scientific research management, financial management, project tripartite joint collaboration, head of the preparation of a more scientific and reasonable.Scientific research management departments should formulate a unified scientific budget management system, formulate reasonable and operable budget process, and instructions, as well as the scientific planning, budgeting method, the establishment principle, the establishment of scientific research budget requirements, prepare the regulations put forward specific demands, improve the budget of the executable.For scientific research personnel, scientific research budgets, should adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts.The specific budget on the basis of the research tasks specified in the scientific research project declaration.Budgeting for the entire research process the possibility of all costs, including budget, direct costs and indirect costs in accordance with the principle of full cost, and will be reported to the budget in the school of finance, scientific research management department for the record.For finance and accounting personnel should be involved in scientific research project as soon as possible, in a timely manner to provide accounting services and accounting supervision, making the support of scientific research personnel timely access to financial information, prepare more scientific and reasonable budget.

According to the teaching of money [2005] 11 files, points out, "project management fees, personnel, funds, fees and other spending is reasonable part of scientific research funds, universities should establish and improve the system of full cost accounting step by step, determine project management fees, fees and other expenses, personnel, funds reasonable level".Specific research projects in order to control the amount of spending, in the process of using scientific research funds, the financial department at the time of subscription, should be based on the various details in the project budget spending projects to establish the corresponding detail course, set each detail course budget quota.In spending in the process of actual operation, accounting, strictly implement the budget quota system, to conform to the provisions and within the budget limit notes to be normal reimbursement, beyond the expenditure of budget quota, can not be reimbursement.This way, the project leader can in more detail in the early to reasonable expenses project budget estimate, effectively avoid spending budget from the content and the actual spending, enhanced the accuracy of the budget, scientific.

On the longitudinal project funding, science and technology department, finance department shall, in accordance with the provisions of strict scientific research expenditure range and expenses standard, personnel expenses, management fees, collaborative research, the proportion of the three budgets can't adjust;Fees cannot be used for personnel incentives, should according to relevant national standards and researchers work, in the approved budget according to solid spending;Project management fee should be in the project management fee and other stipulated by the administrative expenses;Project is used in the school of existing equipment and housing fees or depreciation cost, etc., should be in accordance with regulations of the financial system and reasonable allocation costs included in the subject.

On the transverse project funding, shall establish both schools, colleges and scientific research personnel incentive mechanism, the interests of the individual income distribution in order to fully arouse the enthusiasm of scientific research personnel.Finance department according to the scientific research income make up for the scientific research activities in the consumption of a certain percentage of the use of school teaching equipment cost of direct materials, direct labor, equipment and housing fees or depreciation cost, etc.And after concluding the project financial analysis, make scientific research funds play a greater economic benefit.

To strengthen the internal control system of audit, make scientific research management in accordance with the law.Has been the research of audit on the construction of internal management system, look to whether contained in view of the current problems of scientific research management and use of relevant solving principle and system.Combining the reality of school, to establish and perfect the measures for the management of scientific research funds of the school, the school of scientific research funds management more scientific, standardized and systematic.

To do research using compliance audit, regulate the behavior of funds to use.Do research and use of compliance audit, strengthen scientific research funding constraints of financial management, strictly control the budget expenditure scope and standards, to prevent the misuse of research funds in violation of the discipline of finance and economics.Research using compliance audit key are: school finance department whether the unified management of scientific research funds, put an end to the scientific research funds out of the school regulation form the funds use the phenomenon such as extracorporeal circulation;Expenses reimbursement is in accordance with the regulation, the paper is real legal, whether the signature is complete;The spending is strictly in accordance with the contract requirements, special fund is special;Project management fees, labor, personnel, whether within the prescribed expenditure proportion of expenditure;Still long after concluding don't checkout, concluding for scientific research funds and eased the disguised intercept phenomenon of scientific research funds in violation of the discipline of finance and economics.Through a series of measures to regulate the behavior of scientific research funds use, improve the efficient use of funding.

Since China's reform and opening up, with national economy improved, the revenue is also increasing, especially the tax reform in 1994 released by the system of "dividend", make financial income entered the track of rapid growth, fiscal revenue was 521.81 billion yuan, 1994, 1999, 1.144408 trillion yuan.After that is doubling about every four years, fiscal revenue growth, more than 10 trillion yuan in 2011, up to 10.37 trillion yuan.Fiscal revenue growth more than economic growth for a long time.As an important means of national income distribution, public finance is more prominent to the original meaning of "by, the people", make more and better public services to benefit the nation, so as to quell the financial growth.In 1978-2011 financial income changes as shown in figure 1.
The history of fiscal revenue growth is nearing an end, short-term decline in fiscal revenue growth when the bottom?Start at the end of 2008 the first round of stimulus effect time is limited, economic indicators show that China's economy since 2011 into a new round of downward cycle.Entered since 2012, the domestic and foreign macro economy, structural tax cuts, real estate regulation factors such as overlay, makes the tax revenue reduced to some extent, China's fiscal revenue lasted for 2011 years since dropped month by month, continues to decline (see chart 2).

Recently released economic data in July 2012, the more added to worries about the economy.1, July 2012, the national folk investment in fixed assets of 11.448 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 25.5%, the nominal growth rate than 1 - fell 0.3% in June.In July 2012, the total retail sales of social consumer goods 1.6315 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 13.1% in the name (deducting the price factor of the actual increase of 12.2%), 1 - July monthly year-on-year growth showed a trend of decline.In July 2012, the month, China's import and export value of $328.73 billion, an increase of 2.7%.Among them, export $176.94 billion, up 1%;Imported us $151.79 billion, up 4.7%;The trade surplus of $25.15 billion, narrowed 16.8%.July an increase of 540.1 billion yuan RMB loans, lower than the previous agency predicted 683.8 billion yuan, hit a was the lowest since October 2011, ten months.1, July 2012, the national real estate development investment of 3.6774 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 15.4%, the nominal growth rate than 1 - fell 1.2% in June.In July China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) is 50.1%, than micro fell 0.1% last month, slightly higher than the critical point.July, new orders and new export orders index were 49%, 46.6%, 0.2, 0.9% lower than last month, reflect the future production and export situation is not optimistic.In July 2012, the national overall consumer price level rose 1.8%;July 1 - on average, the national consumer price total level than the same period last year rose 3.1%.

The central government is aware of the overall economy of the gravity of the situation, "steady growth" has become a priority, given the recent return to below 2%, year-on-year growth began to further ease monetary policy, and even some places a massive stimulus, there is no doubt that all of these can help to save the economy downturn, China's economy is expected to bottom out in the third quarter and slightly more expensive.To arouse people vigilant is at the same time, local stimulus policies could add local government debt, and thus increase the systemic risk of financial system, for policymakers to pay more attention to balancing short-term interests and long-term interests, benefits and risks, carefully push is the right choice.

2012 revenue growth is slowing are inevitable.If the government work report average growth of 7.5%, and calculated according to the fiscal income elasticity of 1.06, on average, a few years ago, fiscal revenue growth is likely to reach 12.7% in 2012.So, if the future economic growth remain at 7.5%, 8%, then fiscal revenue growth rate will be 12.7% - 13.5%.Future economic growth will remain around 8% in the long term is a basic judgment, fiscal revenue also inevitably slowed down to a medium speed, may lead to lack of enough that even in excess of the excess loss.This means that the lack of enough motive to do something, such the reform of the fiscal income situation will be conducive to later.