Airport expansion or a new airport
擴大機場還是建一個新機場

Supplementary to the discussion of further provision of air travel capacity is the two competing views of whether this capacity should come from further expansion of current airports or development of an entirely new location, or both.
補充討論進一步提供空中旅游接待能力是兩個對立的觀點，是否應該來自這方面的能力進一步擴大目前的機場或開發一個全新的位置，或兩者兼而有之。

Always the most important advantage to expansion of current assets is the cost, which is generally significantly cheaper than building a new airport outright. In addition, in terms of both cost and timescales, the current transport and services infrastructure can be used and upgraded, and new capacity can more easily be built into current air traffic routes and management. Expansion avoids major changes in airports’ market share and it is better supported by the current airport operators. In addition, frequently expansion proposals suggest lower environmental impacts.
擴大流動資產總是最重要的優勢是成本，通常是明顯比建設一個新機場徹頭徹尾的便宜。此外，在成本和時間尺度，目前的運輸和服務的基礎設施，可以使用和升級，新的產能更容易被內置到目前的空中交通航線和管理。

The other viewpoint is that construction of an entirely new airport may allow full control over potential scale and hence a new airport will obviously be able to better cope with higher levels of demand. This in turn will have a better effect of the UK’s economic value and status. Building from new will allow from the beginning integration of the most sustainable design, will help reduce air traffic flying directly over London, and can be better planned to allow for future expansion. In addition, new projects will be tied to transport upgrades, local regeneration and possible renewable energy provision. All this however comes at a significantly greater cost, which must be offset by the greater potential for demand.
另一種觀點是，建設一個全新的機場可能超過潛在規模，并允許完全控制，因此新機場將顯然能夠更好地應對更高層次的需求。英國的經濟價值和地位反過來，這將有較好的療效。

This proposal looks only at the feasibility of new airport, though it is anticipated further expansion of current airports will be likely in the long-term to supplement this.
這一提議看起來只有在新機場的可行性，盡管預計將有可能進一步擴大，目前的機場長期補充。

Forecasts
預測

Many forecasts in demand for air travel have been made over the past decades to assess air travel demand over the coming decades. The wide range of figures have in the past enabled some previous airport feasibility reports to use the most favourable figures for their particular goal. The Department for Transport (DfT) and Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) figures are the key source of data used in this report.#p#分頁標題#e#
在過去的幾十年里已作出了許多航空旅行的需求預測，在未來幾十年。評估航空旅行需求。

Passengers
乘客

In the past ten years the DfT has made 3 major assessments of future demand for air travel.
在過去的十年中，DFT已經由3個主要評估未來對航空旅行的需求。

In 2003, the DfT’s White Paper “The Future of Air Transport” estimated unconstrained demand for air travel, which assumes no limits to potential airport expansion or development, to be 400-600 million passengers per annum (mppa). (2) In 2007 in the DfT’s “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts”, unconstrained demand in 2030 was re-estimated as 495mppa in the mid-level scenario. (5) In January 2009 the new report of the same name estimated unconstrained mid-level demand in 2030 to be 465mppa, with the growth pattern over the next 20 years assumed to be on average 7% lower than forecast in 2003 (4).
在2003年的DFT白皮書“航空運輸的未來”，估計對航空旅行的需求，假定沒有限制潛在的機場擴建或發展，是每年400-600萬人次（MPPA）不受約束。 （2）在2007年的DFT的“英國航空乘客的需求和CO2預測”，不受約束的需求在2030年重新估計495mppa在中級情況。 （5）2009年1月新報告的同名估計不受約束的中等水平，2030年需求超過假定為平均7％，低于2003（4）預測，未來20年的增長模式，是465mppa。

Figure 2

These updated forecasts take into account new government budgets, GDP projections, oil prices and the latest aviation data. The 2009 forecasts also look as far as 2050, where demand is thought to reach 737mppa.  http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/

More important for this study however is the forecast demand in the South East as the key market for the proposed airport is anticipated to be predominantly South East residents and tourists. In the 2003 forecast report more than half of this demand in 2030 was forecast to be for airports in the South East, with an estimated unconstrained demand of 301mppa. (5)

However, the 2009 forecast estimates unconstrained demand for the South East as 265mppa by 2030 (while the ‘maximum usage’ constrained scenario predicts 243mppa in 2030 but this figure only applies in the case of no new airport development). (4) In 2050 the unconstrained demand is thought to be in excess of 420mppa in the South East. (4)

The latest CAA data gives the current proportion of UK air travel demand taken by South East airports as 60%. (1) However this value is expected to fall as the South East nears capacity and other airports take some of the excess. If no further development at South East airports is permitted over the next 20 years, this will fall to 45% by 2030. (5) However, if significant development is enabled in the South East to cope with demand, this proportion may return to 55% to 60%. It can be seen the 2009 DfT forecast assumes a figure of around 57%.#p#分頁標題#e#

The current major airports in the South East are the London airports of Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City. There are also the second tier South East airports of Southampton, Norwich, Manston, Southend, Kidlington, Cambridge, Shoreham, Lydd; and other minor airports at Farnborough, Biggin Hill, Cliffe Marshes, Alconbury.
目前主要在東南機場是倫敦的希思羅機場，蓋特威克機場，斯坦斯特德，盧頓，倫敦金融城。

We base the figures used in this report on these latest 2009 figures, adjusted for the recent dip in air traffic due to the global recession. We assume that in the case of a major new London airport it is unlikely there would be major expansion work at current airports in the South East. Rather, instead we also assume that all current major airports will be operating at a maximum theoretical capacity for their current set-up in 2030. This therefore allies with the ‘Scenario s02’ in the 2009 figures. (4)
我們立足本報告中使用的數字，這些最新的2009年的數字，調整為最近的空中交通由于全球經濟衰退中暢游。我們假設，在一個重要的新倫敦機場的情況下，這是不太可能會有重大的擴建工作，目前在東南機場。

In practice it is more likely that there will be some development at these current airports, and that without these developments the maximum capacity could not be easily achieved, but the ‘Scenario s02’ capacity gives at least the best conservative figures for our forecast.
在實踐中很可能會有一些在這些電流機場的發展，并沒有這些發展的最大容量可以很容易實現，但我們的預測情景S02的能力至少給出最保守的數字。