美國經濟學留學生作業代寫-如何處置歐元危機
08-16, 2014
在最近的三年之中美國領導人認為在歐盟的歐元危機處理之中表現出了輕視與不滿。白宮與國會之間一直對于歐盟處理經濟問題所表現的無力表示懷疑。他們會如此熱衷于在最后一刻達成一個短期的修補協議；他們會如此沒有能力為單一貨幣達成一項長期的戰略。
這些批評都是無可指責的，但是現在他們應該把擋在眼晴前方的遮擋物拿掉。美國的經濟也許并不像歐洲的所表現的那樣差，但是美國政策體制的失敗-本周之內財政懸崖災難而達成的協議在最后的時候體現出來，但是值得注意的是華盛頓的功能性紊亂模式是令人不安的，在三個令人沮喪的方面同歐元區有著令人不安的相似之處。
FOR the past three years America's leaders have looked on Europe's management of the euro crisis with barely disguised contempt. In the White House and on Capitol Hill there has been incredulity that Europe's politicians could be so incompetent at handling an economic problem; so addicted to last-minute, short-term fixes; and so incapable of agreeing on a long-term strategy for the single currency.
Those criticisms were all valid, but now those who made them should take the planks from their own eyes. America's economy may not be in as bad a state as Europe's, but the failures of its politicians—epitomised by this week's 11th-hour deal to avoid the calamity of the “fiscal cliff”—suggest that Washington's pattern of dysfunction is disturbingly similar to the euro zone's in three depressing ways.
The first is an inability to get beyond patching up. The euro crisis deepened because Europe's politicians serially failed to solve the single currency's structural weaknesses, resorting instead to a succession of temporary fixes, usually negotiated well after midnight. America's problems are different. Rather than facing an imminent debt crisis, as many European countries do, it needs to deal with the huge long-term gap between tax revenue and spending promises, particularly on health care, while not squeezing the economy too much in the short term. But its politicians now show themselves similarly addicted to kicking the can down the road at the last minute.
This week's agreement, hammered out between Republican senators and the White House on New Year's Eve, passed by the Senate in the early hours of New Year's Day and by the House of Representatives later the same day, averted the spectre of recession. It eliminated most of the sweeping tax increases that were otherwise due to take effect from January 1st, except for those on the very wealthy, and temporarily put off all the threatened spending cuts (see article). Like many of Europe's crisis summits, that staved off complete disaster: rather than squeezing 5% out of the economy (as the fiscal cliff implied) there will now be a more manageable fiscal squeeze of just over 1% of GDP in 2013. Markets rallied in relief.
But for how long? The automatic spending cuts have merely been postponed for two months, by which time Congress must also vote to increase the country's debt ceiling if the Treasury is to be able to go on paying its bills. So more budgetary brinkmanship will be on display in the coming weeks.
And the temporary fix ignored America's underlying fiscal problems. It did nothing to control the unsustainable path of “entitlement” spending on pensions and health care (the latter is on track to double as a share of GDP over the next 25 years); nothing to rationalise America's hideously complex and distorting tax code, which includes more than $1 trillion of deductions; and virtually nothing to close America's big structural budget deficit. (Putting up tax rates at the very top simply does not raise much money.) Viewed through anything other than a two-month prism, it was an abject failure. The final deal raised less tax revenue than John Boehner, the Republican speaker in the House of Representatives, once offered during the negotiations, and it included none of the entitlement reforms that President Barack Obama was once prepared to contemplate.
The reason behind this lamentable outcome is the outsize influence of narrow interest groups—which marks a second, unhappy parallel with Europe. The inability of Europeans to rise above petty national concerns, whether over who pays for bail-outs or who controls bank supervision, has prevented them from making the big compromises necessary to secure the single currency's future. America's Democrats and Republicans have proved similarly incapable of reaching a grand bargain; both are far too driven by their parties’ extremists and too focused on winning concessions from the other side to work steadily together to secure the country's fiscal future.
The third parallel is that politicians have failed to be honest with voters. Just as Chancellor Angela Merkel and President François Hollande have avoided coming clean to the Germans and the French about what it will take to save the single currency, so neither Mr Obama nor the Republican leaders have been brave enough to tell Americans what it will really take to fix the fiscal mess. Democrats pretend that no changes are necessary to Medicare (health care for the elderly) or Social Security (pensions). Republican solutions always involve unspecified spending cuts, and they regard any tax rise as socialism. Each side prefers to denounce the other, reinforcing the very polarisation that is preventing progress.
Optimists will point out that America is unlikely to face a European-style debt crisis in the near future, but the slow-burning fuse is itself a problem. One positive side-effect of Europe's crisis is that it has forced euro-zone countries to raise their retirement ages and rationalise pensions and health-care promises. America, which has the biggest structural budget deficit in the rich world bar Japan, will become an outlier in its failure to deal with the fiscal consequences of an ageing population. Its ageing is slower than Europe's but, as its debt piles up and business and consumer confidence is dampened, the eventual crunch will be more painful.
The saddest thing about this week's deal is how unaware Messrs Obama and Boehner seem to be of the wider damage their petty partisanship is doing to their country. National security is not just about the number of tanks or rockets you have. As it has failed to deal with the single currency, Europe's standing has crumbled in the world. Why should developing countries trust American leadership, when it seems incapable of solving anything at home? And while the West's foremost democracy stays paralysed, China is making decisions and forging ahead.
This week Mr Obama boasted that he had fulfilled his mandate by raising taxes on the rich. In fact, by failing once again to clear up America's fundamental fiscal trouble, he and Republican leaders are building Brussels on the Potomac.
Greek national debt are now a 750 billion euro (euro, was born in January 1, 1999, formally on January 1, 2002), equivalent to China more than 65000 one hundred million yuan, the equivalent of about nearly a quarter of China's GDP in 2009, China's GDP in 2009 to 2009 yuan, the equivalent of about $4 trillion).Four if coupled with the eu "piglets" - Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain (podcast, Ireland, Greece, -), and the biggest debtor Italy (for Italian debt first) for the eurozone, the euro zone gross debt crisis countries will be more than 3.8 trillion euros (867 billion yuan 236 billion Greece, Ireland, Spain, 1.1 trillion, 286 billion, Portugal, Italy, 1.4 trillion, the currency for the euro, the data from on May 11, 2010, the southern metropolis daily C2), then with China's GDP in 2009.
Owed money development, modern capitalism is absolutely magic and magic weapon of success, but the debt will have how old, avenue to what extent?How to control the debt?Nearly 200 years of capitalist countries is almost all have not been able to solve, and even set off a wave of high a wave of periodic "economic crisis"...From Adam Smith the wealth of nations, to Marx's "das kapital", more than 250 years since and capitalism has been so far have failed to settle a good historic new topic.Can say so, no "borrowing" big development, there is no past, modernization of capitalism and capitalist today and future.Whether it is the most powerful dollar area, or the richest of the euro zone, debt capital requires the laws of "nature" is a "degree", such as water to more than 90 ℃ temperature will be boiling and then burn the entire evaporation, while lower than 0 ℃ to freeze;Such as steel and gold again, there are certain solubility, bad master "degree" otherwise no amount of wealth can also be zero.
Challenge for the euro zone's overall stability of the debt crisis, in the role of the global monetary system is challenged, the euro zone as a result of its union state debt burden to bankrupt the country, affect the overall stability of the euro currency system, resulting in the phenomenon of continued euro weakness.
On May 10th, in the Belgian capital Brussels, the European commission responsible for economic and monetary affairs commissioner olli rehn after attend the eu finance ministers held a news conference.After more than 10 hours of long negotiations, members of the European Union finance ministers in rescue mechanism, and reach a total 750 billion euros to help may be members of the euro zone debt crisis, to prevent the Greek debt crisis spreading.This is since early 2010 since the outbreak of the Greek debt crisis, the euro zone a barrage to make important actual measure once again.On May 10, in the morning, the European Union to launch in the history of the largest rescue mechanism, put in the total up to 750 billion euros of emergency fund, in order to save the debt of eurozone countries, to prevent the debt crisis in Greece spread again.Recently just rescue of Greece's 110 billion euro bailout in Europe, don't get why the "strong medicine" 750 billion "problem"?
【注】Kick the can (also known as Tip the can) is a children's game related to tag, hide and seek, and capture the flag which can be played outdoors, with as many as three to a few dozen players. The game is one of skill, strategy, and stealth as well as fitness. So“ Kick the can down the road” means that if you kick the can down the road, you delay a decision in hopes that the problem or issue will go away or somebody else will make the decision later.
這些批評都是無可指責的，但是現在他們應該把擋在眼晴前方的遮擋物拿掉。美國的經濟也許并不像歐洲的所表現的那樣差，但是美國政策體制的失敗-本周之內財政懸崖災難而達成的協議在最后的時候體現出來，但是值得注意的是華盛頓的功能性紊亂模式是令人不安的，在三個令人沮喪的方面同歐元區有著令人不安的相似之處。
FOR the past three years America's leaders have looked on Europe's management of the euro crisis with barely disguised contempt. In the White House and on Capitol Hill there has been incredulity that Europe's politicians could be so incompetent at handling an economic problem; so addicted to last-minute, short-term fixes; and so incapable of agreeing on a long-term strategy for the single currency.
Those criticisms were all valid, but now those who made them should take the planks from their own eyes. America's economy may not be in as bad a state as Europe's, but the failures of its politicians—epitomised by this week's 11th-hour deal to avoid the calamity of the “fiscal cliff”—suggest that Washington's pattern of dysfunction is disturbingly similar to the euro zone's in three depressing ways.
The first is an inability to get beyond patching up. The euro crisis deepened because Europe's politicians serially failed to solve the single currency's structural weaknesses, resorting instead to a succession of temporary fixes, usually negotiated well after midnight. America's problems are different. Rather than facing an imminent debt crisis, as many European countries do, it needs to deal with the huge long-term gap between tax revenue and spending promises, particularly on health care, while not squeezing the economy too much in the short term. But its politicians now show themselves similarly addicted to kicking the can down the road at the last minute.
This week's agreement, hammered out between Republican senators and the White House on New Year's Eve, passed by the Senate in the early hours of New Year's Day and by the House of Representatives later the same day, averted the spectre of recession. It eliminated most of the sweeping tax increases that were otherwise due to take effect from January 1st, except for those on the very wealthy, and temporarily put off all the threatened spending cuts (see article). Like many of Europe's crisis summits, that staved off complete disaster: rather than squeezing 5% out of the economy (as the fiscal cliff implied) there will now be a more manageable fiscal squeeze of just over 1% of GDP in 2013. Markets rallied in relief.
But for how long? The automatic spending cuts have merely been postponed for two months, by which time Congress must also vote to increase the country's debt ceiling if the Treasury is to be able to go on paying its bills. So more budgetary brinkmanship will be on display in the coming weeks.
And the temporary fix ignored America's underlying fiscal problems. It did nothing to control the unsustainable path of “entitlement” spending on pensions and health care (the latter is on track to double as a share of GDP over the next 25 years); nothing to rationalise America's hideously complex and distorting tax code, which includes more than $1 trillion of deductions; and virtually nothing to close America's big structural budget deficit. (Putting up tax rates at the very top simply does not raise much money.) Viewed through anything other than a two-month prism, it was an abject failure. The final deal raised less tax revenue than John Boehner, the Republican speaker in the House of Representatives, once offered during the negotiations, and it included none of the entitlement reforms that President Barack Obama was once prepared to contemplate.
The reason behind this lamentable outcome is the outsize influence of narrow interest groups—which marks a second, unhappy parallel with Europe. The inability of Europeans to rise above petty national concerns, whether over who pays for bail-outs or who controls bank supervision, has prevented them from making the big compromises necessary to secure the single currency's future. America's Democrats and Republicans have proved similarly incapable of reaching a grand bargain; both are far too driven by their parties’ extremists and too focused on winning concessions from the other side to work steadily together to secure the country's fiscal future.
The third parallel is that politicians have failed to be honest with voters. Just as Chancellor Angela Merkel and President François Hollande have avoided coming clean to the Germans and the French about what it will take to save the single currency, so neither Mr Obama nor the Republican leaders have been brave enough to tell Americans what it will really take to fix the fiscal mess. Democrats pretend that no changes are necessary to Medicare (health care for the elderly) or Social Security (pensions). Republican solutions always involve unspecified spending cuts, and they regard any tax rise as socialism. Each side prefers to denounce the other, reinforcing the very polarisation that is preventing progress.
Optimists will point out that America is unlikely to face a European-style debt crisis in the near future, but the slow-burning fuse is itself a problem. One positive side-effect of Europe's crisis is that it has forced euro-zone countries to raise their retirement ages and rationalise pensions and health-care promises. America, which has the biggest structural budget deficit in the rich world bar Japan, will become an outlier in its failure to deal with the fiscal consequences of an ageing population. Its ageing is slower than Europe's but, as its debt piles up and business and consumer confidence is dampened, the eventual crunch will be more painful.
The saddest thing about this week's deal is how unaware Messrs Obama and Boehner seem to be of the wider damage their petty partisanship is doing to their country. National security is not just about the number of tanks or rockets you have. As it has failed to deal with the single currency, Europe's standing has crumbled in the world. Why should developing countries trust American leadership, when it seems incapable of solving anything at home? And while the West's foremost democracy stays paralysed, China is making decisions and forging ahead.
This week Mr Obama boasted that he had fulfilled his mandate by raising taxes on the rich. In fact, by failing once again to clear up America's fundamental fiscal trouble, he and Republican leaders are building Brussels on the Potomac.
Greek national debt are now a 750 billion euro (euro, was born in January 1, 1999, formally on January 1, 2002), equivalent to China more than 65000 one hundred million yuan, the equivalent of about nearly a quarter of China's GDP in 2009, China's GDP in 2009 to 2009 yuan, the equivalent of about $4 trillion).Four if coupled with the eu "piglets" - Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain (podcast, Ireland, Greece, -), and the biggest debtor Italy (for Italian debt first) for the eurozone, the euro zone gross debt crisis countries will be more than 3.8 trillion euros (867 billion yuan 236 billion Greece, Ireland, Spain, 1.1 trillion, 286 billion, Portugal, Italy, 1.4 trillion, the currency for the euro, the data from on May 11, 2010, the southern metropolis daily C2), then with China's GDP in 2009.
Owed money development, modern capitalism is absolutely magic and magic weapon of success, but the debt will have how old, avenue to what extent?How to control the debt?Nearly 200 years of capitalist countries is almost all have not been able to solve, and even set off a wave of high a wave of periodic "economic crisis"...From Adam Smith the wealth of nations, to Marx's "das kapital", more than 250 years since and capitalism has been so far have failed to settle a good historic new topic.Can say so, no "borrowing" big development, there is no past, modernization of capitalism and capitalist today and future.Whether it is the most powerful dollar area, or the richest of the euro zone, debt capital requires the laws of "nature" is a "degree", such as water to more than 90 ℃ temperature will be boiling and then burn the entire evaporation, while lower than 0 ℃ to freeze;Such as steel and gold again, there are certain solubility, bad master "degree" otherwise no amount of wealth can also be zero.
Challenge for the euro zone's overall stability of the debt crisis, in the role of the global monetary system is challenged, the euro zone as a result of its union state debt burden to bankrupt the country, affect the overall stability of the euro currency system, resulting in the phenomenon of continued euro weakness.
On May 10th, in the Belgian capital Brussels, the European commission responsible for economic and monetary affairs commissioner olli rehn after attend the eu finance ministers held a news conference.After more than 10 hours of long negotiations, members of the European Union finance ministers in rescue mechanism, and reach a total 750 billion euros to help may be members of the euro zone debt crisis, to prevent the Greek debt crisis spreading.This is since early 2010 since the outbreak of the Greek debt crisis, the euro zone a barrage to make important actual measure once again.On May 10, in the morning, the European Union to launch in the history of the largest rescue mechanism, put in the total up to 750 billion euros of emergency fund, in order to save the debt of eurozone countries, to prevent the debt crisis in Greece spread again.Recently just rescue of Greece's 110 billion euro bailout in Europe, don't get why the "strong medicine" 750 billion "problem"?
【注】Kick the can (also known as Tip the can) is a children's game related to tag, hide and seek, and capture the flag which can be played outdoors, with as many as three to a few dozen players. The game is one of skill, strategy, and stealth as well as fitness. So“ Kick the can down the road” means that if you kick the can down the road, you delay a decision in hopes that the problem or issue will go away or somebody else will make the decision later.
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