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After reading the article on page 724, you will be required to choose one of there three emerging countries to write about (Malaysia, indonesia or the Philippines)and based on the information from the interwiew, class notes and a minimum of five external sources, decide which economic growth model is best for your country of choice.The paper should be include the nessary graphs to support your model.

Most of your work has been on business cycles and other high-frequency phenomena. Can you begin by reviewing the costs of recessions?robert lucas says that postwar U.S. recessions have cost very little.Do you agree?

No …but I’m not sure robert lucas was really trying to say that. My sense is that he was trying to push the profession to focus a bit more on long-run growth issues. Putting down the costs of recessions was a useful debating device to make his important point.

I believe that the statement that recessions are not costly is incorrect. First, I think his calculation of this magnitude reflects some fundamental flaw in the way the workhorse models we use in economics fail to account for the costs of risk and volatility. This flaw shows up in many different puzzle in economics, including the well-known equity premium puzzle. Economic models underestimate, by an order of magnitude, how unhappy agents are about facing uncertainty. Second, it is highly unlikely that recessions and medium-term growth are completely separable. In particular, the ongoing process of restructuring, which is central to productivity growth, is severly hampered by deep recessions.

Recessions are costly because they waste enormous resources, affect physical and human investment decisions, have large negative distributional consequences, influence political outcomes, and so on.

What about the costs of recessions in other parts of the world,especially latin america?
The cost of recessions grows exponentially with their size and the country’s inability to soften the impact on the most affected. Less developed economies suffer much larger shocks beause their economise are not well diversified, and they experience capital out-flows that exacerbate the impact of recessionary shocks. Their domestic financial sectors are small and often become strained during recessions, making it difficult to reallocate scarce resources toward those who need them the most.（本文由代寫留學生dissertation中心Economics essay定制專欄整理提供）

To make maters worse, the government’s ability to use fiscal policy is also out of the question when the currency is in free fall and liabilities are dollarized. There are many things that we take  for granted in the United States that simply are not feasible for emerging markets in distess. One has to be careful with extrapolating too directly the countercyclical recipes used for developed economise to these countries.#p#分頁標題#e#

Your first work, in your M.A. dissertation,was to builda macroeconomic model of the economy of chile. What do we learn by comparing economies?Does the Chilean economy behave essentially like the U.S. economy or are there fundamental differences?

Chile is a special economy among emerging markets. It began pro-market reforms many years before the rest and has had very prudent macroeconomic management for several decades by now.
For that reason, it is a bit more “like the U.S. economy” than most other emerging market economies. However, there are still important differences, of the sort described in my answer to the previous question.

Beyond the specifics of Chile, at some deep level, macroeconomic principles, and economic principles more generally , are the same everywhere. It is all about incentives, tradeoffs, effort, commitment, discipline ,transparency, insurance, and so on, and hence the practice of economics has plenty of diversity.
You’ve studied situations in which capital suddenly stops flowing into http://www.400190.com/Thesis_Writing/Economics/ an economy from abroad. What are the lessons you’ve learned from this research?

First things first. I think we need to get used to the presence of speculative bubbles. The reason is that the world today has a massive shortage of financial assets the savers can use to store value.
Because of this shortage, “artificial” assets are ready to emerge at all times. Specific bubbles come and go-----from the NASDAQ, to real estate, to commodities-----but the total is much more stable.

I do not think the distinction between bubbles and fundamentals is as clear-cut as people describe.
Probably outside periods of liquidity crises, all assers have some bubble component in them. The question is how much.

The most basic lesson for emerging markets is that capital flows are volatile. Sometimes they simply magnify domestic problems, but in many other cases, they are the direct source of volatility. However, the conclusion from this observation is not that capital flows should be limited, just as we do not close the banks in the United Staes to eliminate the possibility of bank runs. On the contrary, much of the volatility comes from insufficient integration with international capital markets, which makes emerging markets illiquid and the target of specialists and speculators.

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