英國(guó)蘭卡斯特大學(xué) (Lancaster University)：消費(fèi)者購買力商業(yè)分析
07-07, 2013
Relative PPP
相對(duì)購買力評(píng)價(jià)
• Relative PPP suggests that changes in the exchange rate should reflect changes in prices
相對(duì)購買力平價(jià)，匯率的變化應(yīng)該反映價(jià)格變動(dòng)
• The country with the higher inflation rate has a depreciating currency
該國(guó)的通脹率上升，貨幣貶值
$/£S0 x [(1+if) / (1+i)] = $/£St
Where:
$/£S0 = $ per £ exchange rate at time 0
$/£St = Exchange rate at time t
i, if = expected inflation in UK, US
[(1+if) / (1+i)] >1 if US inflation > UK inflation – and this will mean US citizens need more $s to buy £1
Questions Relative PPP
相對(duì)購買力平價(jià)問題
For the following examples (1&2), what will the spot exchange rate be in one year according to relative PPP if:
對(duì)于下面的例子（1＆2），什么的即期匯率將在一年內(nèi)根據(jù)相對(duì)購買力平價(jià)，如果：
• The spot exchange rate is $2 per £ today, expected inflation in the UK is 5% and in the USA is 3%?
即期匯率是2元每英鎊今天，在英國(guó)的通脹預(yù)期是5％，而在美國(guó)為3％？
• The spot exchange rate is $2 per £ today, expected inflation in the UK is 4% and in the USA is 5%?
即期匯率是2元每英鎊今天，在英國(guó)的通脹預(yù)期為4％，在美國(guó)是5％嗎？
• Invert the formula for relative PPP so that it would be accurate for exchange rates quoted ‘in reverse’, i.e. number of £’s per $.
反轉(zhuǎn)相對(duì)購買力平價(jià)的計(jì)算公式，所以，這將是準(zhǔn)確的匯率報(bào)價(jià)'反向'，即英鎊的每一美元。
Does PPP apply?
PPP是否適用？
http://ukthesis.org/gjswglzy
• There appears to be little evidence of PPP in the real world data, generally… why not?
有似乎是在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中的數(shù)據(jù)，一般很少有證據(jù)的PPP......為什么不呢？
– PPP assumes that both countries record their prices with identical indexes – is this likely?
PPP假定，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家具有相同的索引記錄他們的價(jià)格 - 這是可能的嗎？
• National variation in statistical practice
國(guó)家在統(tǒng)計(jì)實(shí)踐中的變化
• National variation in the proportions of income people spend on certain goods – so weights vary
國(guó)家對(duì)某些商品消費(fèi)收入人群的比例變化 - 這樣的權(quán)重各不相同
– Non-traded goods:
非貿(mào)易品：
• Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964) both thought
巴拉薩（1964）和薩繆爾森（1964）都認(rèn)為
– the proportion of non-traded goods in the index would cause differences – and the proportion of such goods could vary between countries. Can you export a haircut?
非貿(mào)易商品在指數(shù)的比重會(huì)造成差異 - 此類商品的比例可能會(huì)有所不同的國(guó)家之間。你能出口理發(fā)？
– Transport costs varied due to ‘inherited’ characteristics such as location.
– 運(yùn)輸成本不同，由于'繼承'的特征，如位置
• There could be significant differences due to these
由于這些有可能是顯著的差異
• Similarly, IRP is often not quite followed by real exchange rates:
同樣，IRP往往不太其次是實(shí)際匯率：
– Foreign or domestic capital movement is often restricted by governments, http://ukthesis.org/gjswglzy or is influenced by taxes on the exchange.
外國(guó)或國(guó)內(nèi)的資本流動(dòng)往往是由政府的限制，或受稅收上的交流。
– Whilst this makes obvious impacts on capital mobility and therefore IRP, the RISK of such controls being imposed is an additional deterrent to capital mobility even where it does not currently exist
雖然這明顯影響資本流動(dòng)，因此IRP，被強(qiáng)加的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制資本流動(dòng)是一個(gè)額外的威懾力，即使它目前不存在
Long-run conditions
長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)行條件
• Relative purchasing power parity holds better than PPP itself, and holds relatively well in the long run, although it is unlikely to precisely hold in any one period.
相對(duì)購買力平價(jià)成立優(yōu)于PPP本身，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看持有相對(duì)較好，雖然這是不可能精確地保持在任何一個(gè)時(shí)期。
• CIP does seem to almost hold, but interest rates are almost always slightly out: many international firms are ready to move their borrowing in response to this (causing arbitrage effects) so that it does generally hold as an approximate condition
CIP似乎幾乎持有，但利率幾乎總是稍微：許多國(guó)際公司已準(zhǔn)備好將他們的借貸反應(yīng)（導(dǎo)致套利效果）的，所以，它并普遍認(rèn)為作為一個(gè)近似條件。
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