項目管理方面留學生課程essay寫作-Sopwith Aircruiser 

 

Introduction

The Sopwith Aircraft Industries (SAI) has a long tradition of aircraft manufacture. SAC is planning the development of a new passenger aircraft: Sopwith Aircruiser 3 (SAC 3). The SAC 3 is intended to have a larger capacity and offer greater fuel efficiency than the current SAC 2. A number of options have been considered and just two remain as serious possibilities: the radical SAC3a and the SAC 3b which is a more conservative development of the successful SAC 2. Given the well publicised problems with some competitors’ major aircraft developments, SAI have requested a risk analysis of the project and the options. 該塔飛機工業（SAI）具有悠久傳統的飛機制造。囊是規劃一個新的客運飛機的發展：塔aircruiser 3（SAC 3）。囊3是為了有一個更大的容量和提供比當前的SAC 2燃料效率更高。一些選項已經被認為是和兩個仍然是嚴重的可能性：激進的sac3a和囊3b，是一個較為保守的發展成功的囊2。鑒于廣泛宣傳的問題與一些競爭對手的大飛機的發展，西有要求的項目的風險分析與選擇。

 

The programme for the development of the SAC 3 is dominated by design and testing: it is well worth spending more time and money getting the design right, even if it does appear to delay the whole programme. Solving problems later is very expensive. Computer simulations are used extensively at the design stage to explore alternatives and assess the options. Good design should require relatively little modification. However, the stringent safety requirements imply a rigorous regime of testing. Inevitably some modifications will be needed but past experience suggests that these should be manageable and not introduce substantial delays, or additional costs. 

 

If the SAC 3 development is approved by the Board of Directors, work on the project will begin in June 2011.

 

 Task

You have been asked as a project management consultant to help SAC assess whether the SAC3 development is financially viable and recommend a project plan. You should produce a report for the SAI Board of Directors in time for its next meeting on 10 May 2010. The report should provide:

• a plan illustrating the logic of the project;

• an assessment of the project’s financial viability, assuming no risk;

• a qualitative risk assessment of the project proposal;

• a quantitative analysis of the schedule risk;

• a quantitative analysis of the financial risk;

• a comparison of the two options SAC3a and SAC3b;

• recommendations to the SAI Board.

A number of interviews have been held with key staff from SAI and these have been

summarised below#p#分頁標題#e#

任務

你被要求作為一個項目管理顧問幫助囊評估是否SAC3發展在經濟上是可行的和推薦的項目計劃。你應該產生一個報告會西板在下次會議時間2010日10。該報告應提供：

•計劃說明項目的邏輯；

•對項目的財務可行性評估，假設無風險；

•定性風險評估項目建議書；

•定量分析的進度風險；

•定量分析金融風險；

•比較這兩個選項sac3a和sac3b；

•建議到西板。

多個面試已舉行了與西關鍵員工和已

概述如下

.

The SAC3 options

The SAI Board are divided: some support the radial SAC3a option and others the more conservative SAC3b design. The SAC3a should offer greater performance, generating higher sales and a higher income. However, the SAC3a is dependent on a much greater use of new materials for the wings and fuselage. This should reduce weight, potentially increasing the load and fuel efficiency but it does introduce some additional risks.

 

The design and prototype production phase

While the design concept is well advanced, further discussions are needed with the potential airline customers and airports to confirm the concept (estimated time = 3 months, costing £20 million). Once the design concept is agreed, the detailed design of the main elements of the aircraft can begin. The main elements include:

• specifying the engine with the chosen manufacturer; while the engine will be a standard model, various modifications will be needed to meet the requirements of the SAC3 (3 months and costing £20 million)

• the design of the avionics system and the production of a prototype will take approx. 18 months and cost £100 million;

• the design of the fuselage and the production of a prototype fuselage will take approx.15 months and cost £60 million for the SAC3b option (18 months; £80 million for the SAC3a);

• designing the wings and producing the prototype for use in the test aircraft will take 15 months and cost £80 million for the SAC3b (18 months; £120 million for the SAC3a)

 

The aircraft interior

The design of the interior of the aircraft (12 months; £20 million) can also begin once the design concept is agreed. However there is no great urgency: the interior fittings will only be included in the adapted prototype aircraft for the second set of flight trials. Although the aircraft interior may appear to be a relatively minor component, it is important for passenger comfort, safety and the efficient operation of the aircraft. It can be difficult to specify precisely since these factors are often hard to quantify and determining aspects such as “comfort” in advance.#p#分頁標題#e#

 

Satisfying a variety of users

Any new aircraft has to meet the demands of several “users”. It has to be attractive to the passengers, meeting their expectations for comfort and safety. The aircraft also has to meet the demands of the airlines, providing efficiency and reliability, with the capacity and range necessary for the projected routes. The aircraft also has to be compatible with the facilities provided at the various airports: the aircraft must be able to land and take off safely; the refuelling systems must be suitable; passenger embarkation and baggage handling have to be considered in order to ensure a smooth integration of the new aircraft with the existing airport operations. Apparently minor issues, such as the size of baggage doors can cause significant and costly problems. While it may not cost much (£5 million), liaison with the key airports is essential and should start as soon as the design concept has been confirmed and allow 18 months. The results of this exercise provide input into the revision of the design and construction of the adapted prototype aircraft.

 

Avionics systems

Avionics systems in modern aircraft are crucial. But they are becoming ever more complex involving numerous separate computer based systems monitoring and controlling a great range of aircraft functions. In addition to the technical requirements, the systems also have to provide a clears man-machine interface. Providing the flight crew with data and control is not sufficient: the information display and the controls have to be carefully organised to enable the crew to fly the aircraft. Even though the aircraft may usually fly on automatic pilot the interface must allow human crew to take over at any instance, without causing confusion which could be disastrous.

 

Engines

While the standard engine models will have to be modified to fit the particular requirements of the SAC3 this should not be a major problem. The engine manufacturer requires time to produce the engines but given their experience this should not be subject to any significant delay or cost overrun and these can be regarded as “low” uncertainty activities.

 

Full scale production facility

The prototype aircraft and its systems will be built using specialist teams in an environment more similar to a laboratory than a factory. However, a more efficient system will be needed to construct the production aircraft. The design and build of the full scale production facility (24 months; £300 million) can begin after the assembly of the test aircraft. The actual construction of the first production aircraft will not begin until the results of the second set of flight trials are available. Inevitably the construction of the first production aircraft (3 months; £80 million) will reveal some problems; past experience suggests that these should not be major and should not cause any large delays or cost overruns. Once the safety certification is obtained the first aircraft can be delivered (1 month; no significant cost).#p#分頁標題#e#

 

Flight trials and testing

Trials and testing are the dominant themes in aircraft development. A test aircraft is assembled (6 months; £20 million) once the prototype avionics, fuselage and wings are available. The first set of flight trials can then begin. While these are expected to last 9 months (and cost £40 million) for the SAC3b option there is a high degree of uncertainty about the duration and outcome. If the SAC3a option is adopted the duration of the flight trials could be 12 months and the cost might be £60 million. Unexpected problems may be revealed: some may be quick and cheap to resolve but others could take a long time. Some problems may not be solved and could result in having to accept a reduced capability in the final aircraft. Following the first set of trials, the design will be revised and the prototype aircraft adapted (9 months; £80 million) before embarking on a second set of flight trials (6 months and £30 million for the SAC3b; 9 months and £40 million for the SAC3a). Revising the design also requires the interior design to be complete and also the liaison with the airports should be finished, providing key inputs into the final design. Assuming the second set of flight trials is successful, safety certification will follow (3 months; £10 million ).

 

Customer demand and finance

Market research suggests that at a price of £70 million per aircraft that the likely demand is a total of 24 aircraft per year for the SAC3b. The SAC3a could command a higher price (£75 million and sales might be 30 per year. These sales are expected to continue until 2024 when the next generation of aircraft might be available. Inevitably there is significant uncertainty about these estimates: a standard deviation of 10% might be reasonable. Currency fluctuations, the competition and the nature of the airline business could all affect both the price, sales and product life. SAI usually employs a target IRR of 15% p.a. when assessing major projects such as the SAC3. Many of the costs of an aircraft are incurred in the development phase: a new aircraft is a very capital intensive project. However, the marginal cost of the labour, materials and the various components, including the engines, bought in from suppliers used in the construction of each SAC3a is estimated to be £63 million while the SAC3b should be cheaper to build (£60 million per aircraft). The prices of these components can be agreed in advance and there should be relatively little uncertainty, though exchange rate movements could affect some costs.

 

Historic SAI project data and estimating uncertainty

Some specific concerns have been identified and noted in the interview reports: these should be incorporated in the risk analysis. However, in addition SAI adopt a standard approach based on experience in previous projects. Activities are designated as low, medium, high or very high uncertainty. In general, design and assembly of prototype activities are “medium”. However, in the case of the SAC3a option and the use of new materials for the wings and fuselage perhaps the relevant design activities should be rated as “high”. Flight trials are often problematic and their uncertainty must be rated to be “very high”. Building the production facility is usually relatively predictable. Interpreting these uncertainty ratings in the context of this industry requires historic data and this has been made available as an appendix。#p#分頁標題#e#