評(píng)估俄羅斯的汽車工業(yè)
 

俄羅斯因其汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)而非常出名，這被認(rèn)為是其機(jī)械制造業(yè)的一個(gè)主要領(lǐng)域。汽車工業(yè)不僅極大地影響了這個(gè)國家的工業(yè)地位，而且也折中了俄羅斯的國家安全的基礎(chǔ)。它很大程度上會(huì)影響俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展。汽車行業(yè)今天正在發(fā)生激動(dòng)人心以及前所未有的大變革。這種轉(zhuǎn)型的核心不是關(guān)于汽車公司它如何做工作，而在于如何定義它本身。
 

最近俄羅斯汽車市場已成為最蓬勃發(fā)展的市場之一。汽車工業(yè)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)略任務(wù)的實(shí)現(xiàn)以及加倍的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值利潤 （GDP） 和提供人口就業(yè)直接相關(guān)。汽車的發(fā)展水平以及其他很多方面決定了國家的工業(yè)地位。俄羅斯在汽車生產(chǎn)國中排在第 13 位，并且占有世界2.1%的市場份額。[1] 

歷史：

俄羅斯的歷史在第三和第八世紀(jì)的東斯拉夫開始。到了 18 世紀(jì)，這個(gè)國家成為了俄羅斯帝國。在那個(gè)時(shí)候，俄羅斯被認(rèn)為是全世界范圍內(nèi)的權(quán)力的中心。

 

Assessing The Automobile Industry In Russia

 

Russia is well known for its automobile industry which is considered a major field of its machine building. The automobile industry does not only greatly influence the industrial status of the country, but also compromises the foundation of the national security of the country. It largely affects both the economic and social development of Russia. The automotive industry today is in the middle of a dramatic and largely unprecedented transformation. The heart of this transformation is not about how the auto company does its work but rather how it defines itself.

 

Recently Russian motor-car market has become one of the most dynamically developing markets. Development of the automobile industry is directly connected with realization of the strategic tasks of the economy, as well as doubling the Gross Domestic Profit (GDP) and providing population employment. The level of development of the automotive complex in many respects determines the industrial status of the country. Russia holds the 13th place among motor cars producing countries and has a world share of 2.1 %. [1] 

 

History:

 

Russia's history started with East Slavs in third and eighth century. By the 18th century, the nation became the Russian Empire. At that time, Russia was considered the centre of worldwide power. The history of Soviet Russia started after October Revolution in 1917, led by Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin, who created the world's first socialist state. In this revolution, the Russian provisional government was overthrown and the Soviet assumed the power. Following the October revolution, Russian civil war started (1917 – 1922) between Bolshevik Red Army and White Army, which led to the creation of the Soviet Union in 1922. [2] #p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

The Soviet Union, also known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was founded in Eurasia (Europe and Asia) from 1922 to 1991. USSR has been established from a union of four Soviet Socialist Republics to contain fifteen union republics by 1956. Soviet Union was the largest communist-led socialist state. The government and organization were defined by the Bolsheviks and Communist Party of the Soviet Union (the only legal political party in Soviet Union). [3] 

 

Soviet Economic Development:

 

USSR was considered to have the second largest economy in the world after the United States of America (USA). The economy was centrally planned economy (command economy), in which a system of state ownership was established, meaning that the central government determines the price of goods and services using a fixed price system. This system was established by Joseph Stalin using five – year plans.

 

Flourishing of the economy of the Soviet Union started following the October Revolution in 1917. This was based on series of five – year plans to serve in the rapid industrialization of USSR. However, these economic plans were often based on faulty data because of the very little reliable feedback of the plans success. The result was unbalanced consumer goods production, either under produced leading to shortage or overproduced leading to accumulation in storage. On the other hand, heavy industry had witnessed significant growth since its production was easy to plan without the feedback.

 

The explosive growth of the Soviet economy had reached its peak in 1970. It was estimated at about 60% of the size of UAS in terms of the estimated commodities. In 1973, the Soviet gross domestic power (GDP) was 42% of the USA's GPD with per capita income of 30%. [4] In the era of stagnation, also called Brezhnevian stagnation, in mid–1970 under Leonid Brezhnev, the Soviet economy had witnessed sharp reduction in the growth. This was aggravated by the war in Afghanistan in 1979. During the era of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last president of the Soviet Union (1988 – until its collapse in 1991), the Soviet Nominal GDP had increased sharply from $ 900 billion to $ 1.5 trillion in 5 years duration. Consequently, the economy was half that in USA. [5] 

 

The Economy in Russia:

 

During the era of Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s and today that of Vladimir Putin, Russia has opened its doors to international trade, investment, tourism, media, and Internet. In sharp contrast to the Soviet Union, Russia now publishes voluminous economic, social, and demographic information. As mentioned previously, command economy was the dominant economic policy in the era of Soviet Union; however, it was substituted with market economy following the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In contrast to command economy, market economy is unplanned economy where decisions are made by private owners. Prices of goods and services are determined in free price system set by supply and demand.#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

For nearly 60 years, the Russian economy and that of the rest of the Soviet Union operated on the basis of central planning state control over virtually all means of production and over investment, production, and consumption decisions throughout the economy. Economic policy was made according to directives from the communist party, which controlled all aspects of economic activity. The central planning system left a number of legacies with which the Russian economy must deal in its transition to a market economy. [6] 

 

"In October 1991, Yeltsin announced that Russia would proceed with radical, market-oriented reform along the lines of "shock therapy", as recommended by the United States and International Monetary Fund (IMF)". [7] The transition from a centrally planned economy to a free market system has exposed the Russian economy to a tremendous stress. Both the difficulties in raising the government revenues and the dependence on short term borrowing to finance budget deficits had led to financial crisis in 1998 secondary to Asian financial crises.

 

By the year 2000, Russia was able to meet its external debt services and built up central bank reserves with government budget, trade and account surpluses. Not before 2007 when real GDP has increased by the highest percentage since the collapse of the Soviet Union at 8.1%, overcoming the devastating consequences of the Soviet era.

 

As shown in the above diagram, the Russian GDP had increased following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

 

In 2002, the leaders of eight nations agreed to cancel some of Russia's old Soviet debt in order to enable the usage of the savings for safeguarding materials in Russia. In 2004, the government of Russia had established the "Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation", which is divided into two parts; the first part's goal is to reserve fund equal to 10% of GDP, the second part is the National Prosperity Fund of Russian Federation.

 

In 2008, Russian GDP was $ 11,339 per individual, which as a result classified Russia to be the 57th richest state on both a purchasing power and nominal basis. Inflation, that was evident in Russia, resulted from the removal of the Soviet price controls. It remained a problem in Russia since the government was unable to contain the growth of prices.

 

The Macroeconomic situation for Russia:

 

Russia has a very stable macroeconomic situation, it runs below 10 percent, foreign currency and gold reserves have increased to around $400 billion and are now the world’s third largest after China and Japan. [8] 

 

Over the last seven years, Russia’s economy has grown by an average rate of 6.8 percent each year, In 2006 and 2007 Russia’s growth exceeded all expectations, accelerating in several key economic sectors such as real estate, tourism, and retail. Here is a graph that shows the changes in the Russian GDP growth over the years from 1999 – 2006.#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

Russian economic transition went through obstacles and led to advantages. Despite of being half the size of the former Soviet economy, the Russian economy owns formidable assets. Russia possesses plenty of supplies of many of the world's most valued natural resources, especially those required to support a modern industrialized economy. Additionally, Russia has a well-educated labor force with great technical expertise. On the other hand, Soviet era management practices, a decaying infrastructure, and inefficient supply systems had prevented efficient utilization of those resources. Economy analysts had struggled to achieve correct measurement of the Russian economy; they had questioned the accuracy of official Russian economic data. Although the market now defines most prices, the Russian government still fixes prices on some goods and services, such as utilities and energy. In addition, the exchange rate of the ruble to the United States dollar has increased rapidly that resulted in raising the Russian inflation rate. Consequently, these conditions made it difficult to convert economic measurements from rubles to dollars to make statistical comparisons with the United States and other Western countries.

 

Consumer goods prices Vs. New cars prices in Russia

 

As shown above, the prices of all consumer goods in Russia are increasing by time; while prices of new cars are swinging and almost unstable. And this can be regarding to the "needs" and "wants" of the consumer, where consumer items (all items placed in the graph) like: food, clothes, medicine… etc all are classified under "needs" for the consumer life, while buying a new car is a "want" and unnecessary for a consumer life.

 

Russia’s market for new cars was one of the rapidly increasing in the world and was poised to overtake Germany as the fourth-biggest car market in the world one year ago. Although no big market has escaped the financial crisis unscathed, the collapse in Russia was swifter, more savage and shows fewer signs of recovery than anywhere else. Sales this year are expected to be about half those in 2008. But Russia lacks experience with market economies and the institutions needed to operate them. Moreover, deep issues of central planning present challenges in Russia that other countries were able to avoid.

 

Russian Automotive Market:

 

Russia is ranked as the thirteenth largest manufacturer of vehicles in the world. Russia, with a population over 140 million, has a large attractive market for the world automobile industry, which is one of most eye-catching market. In mid 2002, the Russian government approved the concept of automobile industry development in Russia. It also proposed integration of Russia into global automobile market. In 2004, the Russian market for the first time, had witnessed a tremendous growth in car industry. Russian domestic car sales increased by 10% and foreign-made car sales doubled, driving the experts to believe that the explosive sales growth would continue. However, in 2005, the sales of Russian automobiles had declined by 14%. [9] #p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

On the other hand, imported car sales of second – hand foreign-made cars had increased by one and half times (the sales of Russian foreign made car raised by 17%). In 2005, the vehicles industry reached 120 million vehicles. There is a noticeable rise of Russian car production during January – June, 2006 which is 9.5% up on the results of same period in 2005. Truck production has been increased by 18.4% in comparison with the same period of 2005. According to the data by the Russian Statistics Committee, in January - May 2005 comparing with the preceding year, production of the passenger cars in Russia decreased by 5.7% and reached 415 thousand. Production of buses also fell down by 6.3%.

 

Auto sales in Russia rose by 35% in 2007 compared to 2006. Interestingly, in 2007, the Russian market had the 5th largest car market in Europe and is expected to be the largest market in Europe in the near future. In 2006, Russian market contained more foreign cars than domestic brands; the new car sales reached 1.8 million compared to less than one million in 2002. It is expected to rise at a rate of 21% until 2010. [10] 

 

This growth in car sales is attributed to number of factors that include: increased income, better access to car loans, increase in local production of foreign cars and expanding dealership networks. Furthermore, the market for spare parts and components is growing rapidly at a rate of 14% until 2010. Most of this growth is in the sector of components and spare parts for foreign car brands. On the other hand, Russian brands market will almost stabilize over the coming years.

 

The Russian automobile industrial policies are one of the hot issues. The discussion of Russia's automobile market problems and the development of domestic car industry went from government offices into Russian streets. There are attempts to make the right steering wheel illegal and to increase the custom duties on second-hand foreign-made cars.

 

In the future, Russia is expected to be a prominent market for both production and sale of automobiles. Car sale in Russia is predicted to reach 2.3 million in 2014. Additionally, number of international suppliers is expected to be present in the country.

 

The Russian automotive market had been influenced by a number of factors such as production overcapacity, high inventory and low profitability, triggered by the economic slowdown. However, it is predicted that in 2010 the sales of light vehicles will flourish the market. The Russian government's support for automotive market, upturn of financial sector together with enhanced consumer expectations would boost market sales recovery.

 

The economic crisis had affected the Russian commercial vehicles manufacturers more than passenger car manufacturers. Automakers are loaded with a great inventory issues and have to organize their vehicle production plans and profitability targets for 2009. [11] #p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

Both the lack of sufficient budget in the market and economic instability had negatively affected sales and consumer confidence. In December 2008, light vehicles had undergone a decline in sales by more than ten percent; consequently, great losses for vehicle manufacturers and erosion of shareholder value were the ultimate results. Russian original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are experiencing difficulties with both supplies and dealers, who in turn are facing challenges due to the economic crises in Russia. In order to support the demand for low cast cars in Russia, OEMs should react with the financial sector and dealers. "With almost 30 per cent of OEMs' turnover from low-cost cars sales in 2008, it is crucial for the Russian automotive industry to expand credit availability and financial flexibility for Russian consumers," conclude Frost and Sullivan, Russian Automotive Market Outlook in 2008 – 2010. [12] 

 

In 1993, Russian's automobile industry had yielded 956,000 passenger cars compared to 1,030,000 cars in 1991. In the Soviet era, the industry had witnessed slow production of very unreliable vehicles. In the mid 1990s, the most efficient plant, the Volga Automotive Plant (Avtovaz) at Tol'yatti, required about thirty times the duration needed in Japan leading plant to assemble an automobile. At that time, all Russian vehicle plants were operated at far below capacity with old-fashioned machines and inefficient work forces. In 1995, Avtovaz was the most productive plant. It worked at about seventy percent of capacity. Gor'kiy Automotive Plant (GAZ) in Nizhniy Novgorod was considered another major plant operating more than thirty percent. At that time, there were two main truck manufacturers, the Likhachev Automotive Plant (ZIL) in Moscow and the Kama Automotive Plant (KamAZ) in Naberezhnyye Chelny. These previous manufacturers had suffered from reductions in orders by the armed forces and collective farms that were their main customers. In 1995, GAZ had succeeded in the production of a light truck, of which it sold 75,000, mainly to small businesses. [13] 

 

In the former Soviet, the traditional truck was a heavy diesel model with limited service life. Despite of the substantial increased demand for passenger automobiles in Russia over the past twenty-five years, the output had not responded even in post-Soviet era. In 1994, only eighty-four cars were registered per 1000 people. In the mid 1990s, all automobile plants had the Soviet method of organization; as a result, they were incapable of self-financing and thus ineffective marketing. Because of the lack of post-Soviet government monetary aids, most enterprises were in danger of extinction. Some of the Russian enterprises tried to propose ventures with Western firms, but in most of cases, the Russian partners lack funding for such ventures. Meanwhile, the foreign imports had constituted a threat to the Russian industry; for example, in 1994, only 65,000 automobiles were imported legally. On the other hand, another 250,000 to 500,000 gained access to Russia illegally. As a result, most new cars in Russian cities were foreign that is government vehicles were exclusively Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Saab or Volvo. Exports of Russian passenger cars decreased in early 1990s. [14] #p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

According to joint study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, it was found that the number of new vehicles in Russia will increase from 1.3 million to 2.3 million by 2014. The new car imports to Russia will rise from 300,000 a year in 2004 to 700,000 a year in 2014; this will be a great benefit to international manufacturers. Moreover, the number of new foreign cars assembled in Russia will soar from 100,000 to 800,000. As a result of the boom, 43% of the foreign suppliers are planning to expand their involvement in Russia over the coming three years. The major determinant of how fast the Russian automotive market will fall in line with western standards, depends mainly on how the economy reforms. After China, Russia is one of rapidly growing auto-markets in the world. In the Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Study, they claimed that each year between 2004 and 2014 will see 100,000 more new vehicles registered than the previous one. The total will rise from 1.3 million new vehicles in 2004 to 2.3 million in 2014. [15] 

 

"The Russian car industry is on the verge of a major transformation," says Jürgen Reers, Partner at the Automotive Competence Center of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. "Market structures, processes and, not least, vehicles, will fall in line with Western standards". German and international makers can profit from this particularly. Moreover, automotive suppliers can benefit from the booming car market in Russia. The top 20 suppliers worldwide nowadays have around 150 production sites in Eastern Europe; but there are just six companies with eight locations between them in Russia.

 

According to the study, car manufacturers will need their suppliers more in creating value in future. Between 2004 and 2010, suppliers' share in creating value for Russian vehicle makers is set to increase from 26% to 43%. Amongst international car makers, this proportion is already high, at 66%, but even this is set to rise to 70% by 2010. Furthermore, international car manufactures are set to triple their procurement from local suppliers to meet Russian demand. This will send local content soaring from 12% in 2004 to 36% by 2014. According to the study, the international makers will expand in Russia; leading to a high-performance supplier industry behind them by 2014. [16] 

 

The Russian automotive field has to modernize across the board. This is a noticeable difference in the level of investment in Russia compared with other countries. Germany for example, invested EUR 2,343 for every car made in 2002; on the other hand, Russia invested only EUR 465. Other countries in Eastern Europe also invested much more: the Czech Republic put in EUR 1,922 per vehicle, Poland EUR 1,606, Slovakia EUR 1,190. "While Russian manufacturers spend less than 1% of their sales on research and development, international makers here spend 5% of their sales or more," says Dr. Uwe Kumm, head of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants' office in Moscow. [17] #p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#

 

Russia needs to improve its economy in order to connect to the world car market. This can be accomplished through reducing import duties on components for assembling vehicles and modules, tightening Russian technical standards up to raise product standards. Russia also needs to attract more foreign investment, through investment agencies or special economic areas, for example.

 

According to the previously mentioned study, the establishment of a modern, internationally competitive automotive industry in Russia would create around a million jobs.

 

Car sales declined more sharply in Russia than anywhere else in the world. However, experts at the Russia Day of the International Motor Show on September 25, 2009 predicted this huge market will soon be one of the most dynamic again. Among the speakers at the well-attended discussion forum "Selling cars in Russia – Growth market after the crisis" was car expert and Roland Berger Partner Ralf Kalmbach, who outlined two scenarios, both of which assume that the greatest negative effects of the economic crisis in the Russian car market will be overcome by 2010 and a quick recovery will follow. The pessimistic scenario predicts a weak recovery of the Russian market in 2010 and growth to around three million units by 2020. The optimistic scenario predicts vehicle to reach 1.7 million this year and 2 million in 2010, and as many as 3.6 million vehicles by the end of the next decade. [18] 

 

"For car makers in Russia, whether Russian or foreign, this is news of great strategic importance. Very soon, Russian demand may well exceed current local production capacity of 1.7 million units," said Kalmbach. Russia should establish its efforts to lay the foundation for a competitive domestic car industry in the future. "I do not think that the efforts undertaken so far will be enough," Kalmbach warned. "The Russian government would be well advised to set up a master plan for the car industry in their country as soon as possible – for GAZ, AvtoVAZ and suppliers."

 

The first three world largest car manufacturers are the USA, Japan and Germany, followed by Russia. The other leading nations of business interest in automobile industry include United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Italy and Korea. [19] 

 

Challenges facing automobile industry:

 

The global automobile industry encounters a range of issues: unstable profitability the biggest of them, high costs and fierce competition for the consumer make it very hard to function in the market and limit opportunities for growth in developed markets.

 

In addition to the above, these are the five primary challenges that automobile industry will face in the next 10 or 20 years: [20] 

 

Globalization: Globalization is neither cheap nor easy at any point along the value chain. Governments in the developing markets know that their prospective growth has value, and it is perfectly rational for them to auction off that growth potential to the highest bidders. As car companies vie for market share and add manufacturing capacity in order to build where they hope to sell, they bid away the economic returns to themselves and exacerbate the overcapacity problem on a larger scale.

 

Product differentiation: Vehicle buyers have an abundance of choices of vehicles with increasingly similar functional and performance characteristics, In order to increase share, maximize price realization, and use their capacity, Russia must offer differentiated products that win with consumers by addressing the unsettled wants and needs for automobile consumers.

 

Product development: Vehicle development is expensive, time-consuming, and risky. Challenges exist along two dimensions; the first is to learn how to distinguish the parts of the car where consumers are indifferent from those that are visible and important to creating and preserving brand identity. The second is to reduce the cost of development so as to be able to make product differentiation more affordable.

 

Supply chain restructuring: For the past several decades, vehicle manufacturers have been engaged with two main supply initiatives. One of these is to reduce their overall levels of vertical integration, both to ensure that purchased parts are world-class and to reduce their fixed costs of assets and labor (Labor contracts make labor cost considered as a fixed cost at many vehicles manufacturers). The other is to reduce the number of companies that supply directly to the vehicle manufacturer, pushing the supply base into a sort of pyramid and delegating some of the routine tasks of purchasing, production scheduling, and inventory management to their “Tier One” suppliers. For the vehicle manufacturers, this reduces both assets; inventory, but also holding space and, in some cases, assembly line space and tooling, and operating costs.

 

Marketing and distribution: Competition for customers and the expense of differentiating products have forced vehicles manufacturers to look downstream for new ways to create and capture value. Two main approaches are followed: The first, “follow the car,” is to participate more extensively in the stream of post-assembly transactions relating to a vehicle. The second is “follow the customer,” is to build durable relationships with customers over their vehicle-buying lifetimes. Both of these ways require radical changes in the ways that vehicles manufacturers define and serve their markets.

 

As a counterweight to stagnation in traditional markets, Russia offers lot of opportunities for the automotive industry. Growing purchasing power, governmental programmes to stimulate production and investments, expanding dealership networks all establish favorable conditions for both domestic and foreign car makers and components, distributors and servicing companies. The solution for the Russian product development problem has been platform communization and the creation of derivatives. A more recent and equally powerful initiative is for vehicle makers to begin to depend more fully on suppliers for “Systems” and “Modules”. Systems are defined in terms of functions consisting of a number of components that are not necessarily located with each other. A module is a number of components that may not be at all related functionally but can be assembled and supplied as a unit to final assembly.#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#