EFFECT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF TECHNICAL AND OPERATIONAL MEASURES
技術和業務措施的實施影響

The initial chapters of the report describe the amount and effect of greenhouse gas emissions from ships, and provide a general description of technical and operational measures to reduce the emissions. Based on the above presentation, the most applicable or cost efficient means for reducing emissions, or the total effect of the various measures, is difficult to consider. Historical data provide clear indications of increased consumption of marine bunkers. As a consequence of the increased total consumption, emissions will increase compared with the figures for the base year of 1996 as presented in Chapter 3.
初步報告章節描述了船舶溫室氣體排放的數量和效果，并提供技術和業務措施，以減少排放量的一般描述。根據上面的介紹，為減少溫室氣體排放的最適用的還是成本的有效手段，或總效果的各項措施，是很難考慮。

In order to quantify the effect of various measures, a selection of measures considered most relevant and applicable was chosen for further illustration. A case study was established primarily to quantify the effect of technical measures, while a modal comparison serves as an illustration of the potential of some operational aspects.
為了量化各種措施，選擇認為最相關及適用的措施效果，選定為進一步說明的情況下，研究建立主要是為了量化技術措施的效果，而作為一個模式比較說明一些業務方面的潛力。

1. Scenario for future growth of GHG emissions from ships – A case study
船舶溫室氣體排放的未來增長情形 - 一個案例研究

1.1.Introduction
介紹

Two scenarios for growth of the world fleet were developed for comparison reasons for a case study. A scenario in this context is a set of assumptions related to the development of the consumption of marine bunkers for the next 20 years.
世界船隊增長的兩個方案研究的原因進行了比較。在此背景下的一個場景，是在未來20年，一組海洋掩體的消費發展的相關的假設。

The primary reason for a case study with a time window of 20 years is the slow pace of introduction of new measures in a large world-wide fleet. A short-term analysis (5-10 years) is considered to provide information of limited value, owing to the fact that the replacement ratio of the fleet is low, and implementation of technical measures on existing ships will require a significant effort over time due to the large amount of vessels. As the uncertainties related to results increases with increasing length of projection, the upper limit for reasonable confidence in the results was chosen to be 20 years. In order to limit the model, results for year 2010 and
2020 are presented.
一個案例研究以20年的時間窗口，主要原因是引進新的措施，在一個大的世界，各地的車隊速度緩慢。被認為是提供價值有限的信息，由于這一事實，短期的分析（5-10年）大量的船只，隨著時間的推移，艦隊的替代率很低，和現有船舶技術措施的實施將需要很大的努力。#p#分頁標題#e#

Within the framework of the defined scenario a set of case studies, considering alternative measures for reduction of the fuel consumption or improved efficiency was performed. The world fleet consists of a large variation of ship types and sizes. In order to simplify thepresentation and assessment of the potential of different technical or operational measures for improvement, only four ship categories have been considered. Within the framework of the defined scenarios, case studies on the ship categories tank, bulk, container, and general cargo have been performed. The categories were selected based on their contribution to the overall emissions as presented in Chapter 3.
在框架內定義的情況下，對一組進行案例研究，考慮替代措施，減少燃料消耗或提高效率。世界船隊的船舶類型和大小有一個大的變化。

1.2. Methodology
方法論

Case ships to consider
案例船舶考慮

Various options were considered for assessing of fleet growth and the corresponding effect on GHG  http://ukthesis.org/ygsslwdx/   emissions. In order to perform a quantitative presentation, it was found necessary to divide the fleet into segments, but at the same time limit the amount of information. To consider the total fleet in general terms was considered too coarse, while individual ship representation would require time and resources beyond the framework for the project. Based on the above, the combination of case ships and baseline scenarios was chosen in order to quantify the effect of various measures to reduce emissions.
對溫室氣體排放量的船隊增長和相應的效果進行評估，考慮了各種備選方案。為了進行定量表達，發現要劃分成段車隊，但須在同一時間限制信息量。

A case ship is a hypothetical ship, representing a typical vessel in a specific ship category. The size of a case ships was selected based on the contribution from different tonnage groups to the total DWT of one segment. Main-engine effect was found by selecting relevant main dimensions for an actual ship of equivalent tonnage and then making an empirical resistance prediction based on the database from the MARINTEK towing tank. These results compared well with empirical data from DNV fleet information.
一艘情況下是一個假設的船舶，特定的船舶類代表一個典型的船只。基于從不同噸位組的一個段的總載重貢獻，大小的情況會被選中。

Based on the results from the calculation of emissions in 1996, the ship categories were selected from the main contributors to the overall emission level as shown in Table 6-1.
在1996年排放量計算結果的基礎上，選擇主要貢獻者船舶類別的總體排放水平，如表6-1所示。

Table 6-1 – Case ship description, based on Emission Inventory Analysis.#p#分頁標題#e#
表6-1 - 案例船舶，基于排放清單分析。

The four ship segments represent approximately 80% of the CO2 emissions in 1996.
在1996年，四個貨船分部代表約80％的二氧化碳排放量。