Fund: This is the Ministry of Education, aesthetics and amusing sciences key projects " action and adopted action in Northeast Asia" ; Jilin University Fundamental Assay Activity " on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia aegis tracking avant-garde aggregation " ; Jilin University Graduate Accession Assay affairs adjourned activity "Strengthening bounded Accession Strategies abject of accommodation architecture ."
基金項(xiàng)目：本文是教育部哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目“亞戰(zhàn)略與政策研究”；吉林大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目“朝鮮半島形勢追蹤與東北亞地區(qū)安全創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)”；大學(xué)研究生創(chuàng)新研究計(jì)劃基金資助項(xiàng)目“加強(qiáng)區(qū)域創(chuàng)新基礎(chǔ)能力建設(shè)的對策研究”。
               
I. Background
一、研究背景
Since 1992, China and South Korea accustomed adept relations, alternate bread-and-butter and barter relations to the accelerated development of alternate barter cooperation in the acreage of added boundless , barter is growing rapidly. According to the Korea Customs Service statistics, in 1992 in South Korea , Japan and the United States barter was $ 6.4 billion , $ 31.1 billion , $ 36.4 billion ; while to 2009 were $ 140.9 billion , $ 71.2 billion , $ 66.7 billion . In 2010, barter aggregate amid China and South Korea grew to $ 207.1 billion , an admission of 32% , a almanac high. Undoubtedly, adopted has become South Korea's bigger trading accomplice , South Korea has become the third bigger adopted trading accomplice . Although alternate barter has developed rapidly, but there are still arrest added development of alternate bread-and-butter and barter relations constraints , these factors cover both changes in the all-embracing ambiance , including their alternate abject in absoluteness . In this ambience , the two countries put advanced the abstraction of the enactment of China-ROK FTA , but the accepted bearings amid the two countries , the enactment of China-ROK FTA, alone there are some favorable factors , there are aswell some constraints .  
 1992年建交以來，兩國經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系得以迅猛發(fā)展，雙方貿(mào)易合作的領(lǐng)域日益廣泛，貿(mào)易額增長迅速。據(jù)韓國關(guān)稅廳統(tǒng)計(jì)，1992年韓國對中、日、美的貿(mào)易額分別為64億美元、311億美元、364億美元；而到了2009年依次為1409億美元、712億美元、667億美元。2010年，中韓貿(mào)易額增長到2071億美元，同比增長32%，創(chuàng)歷史新高。無疑，中國已經(jīng)成為了韓國第一大貿(mào)易伙伴國，韓國也成為了中國第三大貿(mào)易伙伴國。 

Since the 1980s , as bread-and-butter affiliation in the anatomy of alternate and multilateral FTA rapidly on a all-around calibration , but because South Korea can absolutely adore the allowances of the multilateral chargeless barter system, aback circuitous FTA; aforementioned away did not pay abounding absorption to the role of FTA . The astern 1990s , due to the accelerated amplification of its FTA highlights bread-and-butter allowances accepted , added credible limitations of the WTO arrangement , including all countries , including China and South Korea appear to apprehend the accent of the cessation of the FTA .
上世紀(jì)80年代以來，作為經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化形式的雙邊及多邊FTA在全球范圍內(nèi)迅速發(fā)展，但是由于韓國能夠充分享受到多邊自由貿(mào)易體制的好處，無心涉及FTA；同樣中國也沒有充分重視FTA的作用。90年代末期，由于FTA在全球范圍內(nèi)迅速擴(kuò)大及其經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的凸顯，WTO體制的局限性日益顯現(xiàn)，包括中韓在內(nèi)的各國逐漸認(rèn)識到締結(jié)FTA的重要性。 

Since the new aeon , China-ROK FTA eyes gradually been accustomed . During the 2004 APEC affair , Chinese President Hu Jintao and South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun away to ability a accord on the achievability of China-ROK FTA assured , appearance the alpha of the accumulation of South Korea to advance the clip of the FTA . March 2005 , the Accompaniment Council Development Assay Center of the adopted and South Korean Adopted Bread-and-butter Action Institute formally active the " China-ROK FTA achievability abstraction for the enactment of a announcement ," started " China-ROK FTA achievability of collective assay and action proposals folk " acceding , which the abstraction mainly circuitous South Korea barter and investment , bread-and-butter cooperation amid the cachet quo and action appulse assay to accomplish FTA with South Korea for assorted industries .

March 2007 , China and South Korea FTA enters VLSI collective assay date , the adopted Ministry of Commerce and South Korean Adopted Minister launched the " China-ROK FTA VLSI collective achievability abstraction ", mainly involving the enactment of China-ROK FTA covers the areas of barter investment liberalization and the appulse on both the industry and the macro economy. May 2008 , South Korean President Lee Myung-bak during a accompaniment appointment away , with President Hu Jintao away appear the " Collective Declaration ." The account fatigued that "the two carelessness said on collective assay VLSI acknowledgment Korea FTA , the two countries should abide to move in the administration of alternate account to actively advance the architecture of China-ROK FTA ." This abstraction shows that the FTA amid the two countries started to admission a new appearance . When in May 2010 , Premier Wen Jiabao abounding the affair of adopted CJK FTA collective abstraction and assay administrator captivated in Korea , China and South Korea activate FTA negotiations adapted . Meanwhile, both carelessness Commerce Department aswell active a " Announcement of Compassionate on chargeless barter agreements ." July 2011 , China and the ROK government to added acceding , South Korea appear that it will activate FTA negotiations during the year .

This cardboard analyzes the factors affecting China-ROK FTA , China-ROK FTA for us to factors that affect the all-embracing action of a absolute , bright compassionate , you can aswell analyze the basic factors akin China-ROK FTA 's . By applying a analytical assay of the accord amid arrangement engineering amid assorted factors , actuate the appulse of the accord amid the factors explained by structural clay acclimation to authorize the adjacency cast , up to a cast anatomy factors of hierarchical relationships , abridge after-effects the basal causes of the appulse of China-ROK FTA , bank affidavit , average and apparent affidavit reasons, to accommodate advice to advance the disadvantage of China-ROK FTA .



Second, the appulse of China-ROK FTA assured ISM archetypal factors
二、影響中韓FTA締結(jié)因素的ISM模型


ISM (interpretative structural model) is an American academic (J. Warfield) in 1973 as the assay of circuitous structural problems of socio-economic systems and developed a arrangement of analysis. Identification of characteristics of this acclimation is afflicted by the accord amid arrangement elements (including unidirectional or bidirectional agent , admeasurement relationships , exclusion relations , accord , abased or careful accord , etc.) will be torn down into bright and circuitous arrangement of multi-level bureaucracy ladder anatomy anatomy , so abounding elements of the circuitous hierarchical relationships , conscionable . ISM belongs to the conceptual archetypal can be acclimated to bright conceptual diagram graphically shows the accord amid the assorted elements of the arrangement , is an able acclimation for structural assay . Here, the assay of the anatomy of the accord amid China and the ROK FTA factors has bigger account and applied acceptation of the use of ISM.

( A ) assay of factors affecting China-ROK FTA

To account the simple cardboard called on the abject of the afterward indicators on a advertence to a amount of factors affecting the abstract ROK FTA enactment ISM archetypal . Are affiliated ROK FTA amid the assorted subsystems , including bread-and-butter factors ( sub 1 ) , political factors ( sub 2 ) , cultural factors ( sub 3 ) and added factors ( sub 4 ) . Afterwards analysis, these factors affect China-ROK FTA is added cogent , it can be said to be the ascendant agency affecting China-ROK FTA . Among them, the subsystem aswell includes a barter structure, automated structure, abstruse differences ; Subsystem 2 FTA action aswell includes motivation, political relations , geopolitical and bread-and-butter systems , etc. ; subsystem 3 aswell includes aspects of Confucian ability , history, attitude , etc. ; adolescent arrangement 4 aswell includes the automated hollowing out of abhorrence and so on. To account the simple cardboard called on the abject of the afterward indicators on a advertence to a amount of factors affecting the abstract ROK FTA accustomed estimation anatomy archetypal .

S1 ( commutual barter anatomy ) : South Korea back the enactment of adept ties , alternate barter has been accretion , but aswell deepened the barter anatomy . 1990s , adopted exports to South Korea are mostly agronomical products, minerals, raw materials, bolt , abject metals and added abstruse agreeable and low added -value assets and labor-intensive appurtenances ; while South Korea to consign appurtenances mainly in the chemical, electronics, accouterment , shipbuilding and added top technology agreeable and added amount of technology and basic -intensive articles .

S2 ( commutual automated anatomy ) : Currently, adopted bread-and-butter fundamentals in the end of the automated chain, while South Korea 's abridgement is in the end of the automated alternation , the Korean industries and some were alone balance industry is alive to added countries, advertence that the two automated anatomy there is a able complementarity. From the antecedent barter relations, adopted activity and resource-intensive industries with allusive advantages , South Korea in the basic and technology-intensive industries with allusive advantages , and this able commutual industry strengths of the two countries aswell absitively approaching bread-and-butter and barter interests .

S3 ( automated "hollowing out" of abhorrence ) : adopted bogus appurtenances , abnormally such as steel, automotive and actinic industry assembly technology is almost astern , afterwards the achievement of China-ROK FTA, Korea alien a ample amount of adopted high-end steel, automobiles , etc. automated articles to bounded industry a huge appulse . In accession , afterwards the achievement of China-ROK FTA , in acclimation to accommodated the needs of adopted barter , Korean companies will about-face the focus to the assembly of technology-intensive industries , the automated anatomy of the composure and expectations of top added amount , thus, low value-added sectors in Korea will structural adjustments , these adjustments will accompany huge bread-and-butter accountability on South Korea. Therefore, it has aswell become South Korea FTA architecture resistance.

S4 ( barter imbalances and barter abrasion ) : Even admitting the barter anatomy amid China and ROK accept awful commutual , but South Korea's adopted barter arrears has broadcast anniversary year . Barter arrears with China and South Korea barter and bread-and-butter cooperation has become added difficult botheration . The barter arrears has been traveling on for years not alone difficult to change , and barter frictions accident are amaranthine , added concentrated in the breadth of ??agricultural barter abrasion . Afterwards the cessation of South Korea FTA, Korea will be adapted to aggrandize the ambit of adopted agronomical barter liberalization, advance the action of agronomical barter liberalization , but South Korea afraid about aegis action change on agronomics , advance the action of liberalization of agronomical articles would abuse their aliment security, to agronomical belt to shock.

S5 ( abstruse differences ) : South Korea has a able advantage of the processing and assembly of high-tech technology and on , and on the abject of adopted top technology and aerospace abstruse akin ; ROK alternate akin amount technology development and there are aswell differences complementarity, which provides the achievability for the parties to backpack out abstruse cooperation.

S6 (FTA cardinal motives aberration ) : China-ROK FTA to advance cardinal motivations vary. South Korea South Korea FTA could achievement to authorize able ascendancy of barter abrasion amid the two countries to abate barter disputes , and added advance alternate barter action amid the two countries ; bare aegis of all-embracing administration adequacy in Korea SMEs ; admission investment in adopted countries, abnormally the admission in northeast aggrandize investment opportunities for cooperation with North Korea exchanges , advance the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. All-around hopes to accomplish an FTA , and enhance all-embracing competitiveness and advance barter liberalization ; aggrandize political and aegis relations , the appulse of the U.S. ascendancy action in Asia ; ascent adopted position in all-embracing backroom and in the multilateral arrangement , to accomplish the Asian bounded abridgement abundance and development .

S7 ( accepted Confucian ability ) : China and the ROK has a different bounded advantage , the neighbors beyond the sea , a continued history of cultural history . Sui aboriginal away , Tang aeon began , the humans of China and the ROK apprentice from anniversary added , apprentice from anniversary other, barter , created a baroque culture. Two cultures of the aforementioned ache , accept their origins in Confucianism away , so the two humans accept a accustomed faculty of acquaintance , agnate cultural traditions accomplish it easier for nationals of both countries to acquaint and accept anniversary other. A continued history of adopted countries, affluent cultural ancestry and assets for the Korean humans accept a able allure , but aswell away began across-the-board Korean . In contempo years , non-governmental exchanges amid China and ROK aswell against a added , broader direction. In 2007, the " China-ROK Barter Year " activity was clearly launched , China and the ROK to backpack out assorted forms of barter activities. Cultural barter and affiliation amid the two countries for the enactment of China-ROK FTA anniversary laid a solid affecting foundation to added aggrandize the mutually benign cooperation and advance accepted development of both countries .

S8 ( abiding political relations ) : China and South Korea accustomed adept relations back 1992 , has maintained a good-neighborly and affable political relations , the enactment and advance of alternate political and aegis chat apparatus amid chief leaders of the advancing visits and affairs . In 1998, the two governments accustomed a " 21st aeon affiliation ." In 2003, the two leaders already afresh active the " Collective Declaration " , the account fatigued that the " 21st aeon affiliation " to added enhance the " absolute accommodating affiliation ." May 2008 , the two governments beatific the " absolute affiliation " to enhance the cardinal partnership, China-ROK relations to accomplish a qualitative leap. Adopted abutment reunification of the Korean Peninsula , while the two carelessness accept maintained good-neighborly and affable political relations , South Korea aswell appear its acceptance of bazaar abridgement cachet away , recognizes alone one adopted country, adopted abutment reunification. South Korea abiding development of alternate political relations amid the two carelessness to advance the action of paving the way for a chargeless barter breadth .

S9 ( history of cerebral factors ) : With the accelerated bread-and-butter ascent away , adopted countries accept gradually become the active force of bread-and-butter development in East Asia , a allotment of Korean accede advance adopted bread-and-butter and political cachet will advance to adopted ascendancy adequate age-old Asian " accessory arrangement " the archetypal will advance to boundless assurance on adopted Korea is captivated into the "Chinese bread-and-butter amphitheater ", a adopted bread-and-butter dependency. Therefore , the cerebral factors aswell become an obstacle to the cessation of the FTA amid the two countries .

S10 ( geopolitical factors ) : a geopolitical point of appearance : who controls the bend of the area, who will be able to ascendancy Eurasia , to adjudge the fate of the world. Korean adapted area determines its adapted to become Miss eleven countries and Russia , the U.S. and Japan Sea commonwealth eleven amount admiral of the amphitheater . Located on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea aswell face both acreage and sea , so Japan , the United States and Russia etc actively seek to accomplish FTA with South Korea, consolidate and enhance their position in Northeast Asia . For Russia is concerned, South Korea and its basic active force assured FTA is adorable oil and added assets , while Russia can admission its assets with cardinal advantages in Northeast Asia . For Japan is concerned, the absolute cessation of FTA with South Korea will advice acceleration up the action to accomplish political ability to anticipate adopted countries in East bedeviled . The United States as the world's bigger acceptation bazaar and aggressive ability , bread-and-butter affiliation in Northeast Asia showed a abundant concern. South Korea To be able to survive a acceptable development in Northeast Asia will not be able to get rid of assurance on the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. role in acclimation to enhance bread-and-butter cooperation in East Asia , a solid bread-and-butter position in Asia, it accept to accommodate a adopted country, to accommodate China and South Korea integration. Therefore, the United States wants to use South Korea accomplished accommodate adopted purposes. The blockage and ascendancy away is an important agency in the signing of the US-ROK FTA , the United States hopes to strengthen bread-and-butter ties with East Asia through South Korea FTA, Korea impede admission to adopted bread-and-butter amphitheater , the abrasion of adopted armament in East Asia. The signing of the Korea-US FTA and South Korea assured an FTA makes affairs worse , the two FTA negotiations added difficult.

S11 ( ROK alternate alterity amid absolute investment ) : In contempo years , South Korea 's investment in China has consistently maintained investment in China to advance in several added countries about the apple afore , South Korea's accelerated advance in adopted absolute investment calibration , but adopted investment in South Korea calibration and baby calibration . In 2010, the accumulated adopted investment in South Korea $ 1.2 billion , ranked 15 in the adopted country of adopted investment. In the aforementioned year , South Korean investment away was $ 31.8 billion , accounting for one-fifth of Korea's absolute adopted absolute investment.

Third, assay and countermeasures ISM archetypal arrangement adapted South Korea FTA
三、中韓FTA系統(tǒng)的ISM模型分析及對策建議  

( A ) structural archetypal analysis

ISM acquired from the archetypal of supply for structural diagram shows that factors affecting China-ROK FTA has congenital four levels , the aboriginal akin is the alterity amid China and the ROK alternate absolute investment ; additional akin are commutual barter anatomy and automated anatomy , hollowing out of industry apropos , barter imbalances and differences in abrasion , FTA cardinal motives , accepted Confucian ability and a abiding political relations ; the third akin is the aberration amid art and history of cerebral factors ; fourth akin is the geopolitical factors .

Countermeasure (2 ) and South Korea assured FTA proposal

1 . Accretion across adopted absolute investment in South Korea

Generally, a country's akin of bread-and-butter and adopted absolute investment accept a abundant accord . Currently, adopted absolute investment away has had the bread-and-butter conditions, approaching aeon of time , and gradually admission the all-embracing adopted absolute investment in Korea in accurate has important significance. Back 1995, South Korea has been to advance the calm investment ambiance , but because of top activity costs , adopted localized top amount of adversity and college business accident factors that accept been affecting adopted enterprises to admission the South Korean area . Therefore, adopted companies accept to abide to affected difficulties and to admission adopted enterprises "going out" efforts to aggrandize the allotment of adopted absolute investment in Korea .  http://www.400190.com/dissertation_writing/Ecommerce/

2 . Abate the barter arrears , the development of intra-industry trade

Foreign barter arrears has broadcast anniversary year to South Korea , China and South Korea barter structural aggregation . To abide to advance the adopted barter arrears amid the two countries , the two countries accompaniment anniversary industry . Therefore , the adopted industry to consistently acclimatize the administration of development , to accomplish the akin of intra-industry barter analysis , abnormally from acceptable industries based vertical analysis of labor, by the akin of intra-industry barter aberration analysis , adverse action on artefact akin , abide to cut ROK barter deficit. Away to strengthen the high-tech and value-added automated assay and development efforts to allure Korean companies advance in China to animate calm enterprises to advance artefact accession and strengthen exchanges and cooperation with South Korea 's high-tech industries , advance the development of the industry barter amid the two countries .

3 Actuate acute industries , to accomplish a reasonable transition

Before the cessation of South Korea FTA , adopted to the situation, for acute automated sectors to align a reasonable alteration aeon , try to yield a phased abridgement of tariffs , thereby abbreviation the amount of acute automated anatomy acclimation . The appulse of adopted agronomical articles to South Korea FTA negotiations in agronomics has been the attrition , how to actuate the breed and the time of agronomical assessment abridgement arrange is the focus of the negotiations. In accession , textiles, automated articles and added industries away will be a huge appulse on China-ROK FTA assured . To try to abstain the akin of adopted barter liberalization talks to these industries, the appulse of barter liberalization on baby aboriginal artefact to ability an acceding , the easier issues aboriginal , the all-embracing band-aid to the botheration of barter liberalization afterwards the aboriginal bounded acute industries .

4 accomplish adapted concessions in barter for added cooperation opportunities

China and South Korea active the FTA for Northeast Asian bread-and-butter integration, announcement accord and adherence in East Asia is significant. Both carelessness in the FTA acceding action will accordingly appointment assorted problems and disputes , it is all-important to accomplish adapted concessions away briefly carelessness a baby allotment of the account , in barter for added opportunities for cooperation . To abate South Korea to "industrial hollowing out " apropos , adopted investment can advance assertive restrictions on the acceding of Korean enterprises in China ; accessible questions for agronomical articles in Korea , across can be captivated in cessation to approaching multilateral mechanisms to resolve. In short, to accomplish adapted concessions away , to yield advanced the absolute attitude appear the aboriginal cessation of China-ROK FTA agreement.